World Bank Projects Upward Egypt’s Growth During 2024-25

April 28, 2025

The World Bank (WB) has revised its growth outlook for Egypt upward, projecting a 3.8% year-on-year expansion for the fiscal year 2024-25. The new forecast marks a 0.3 percentage point increase from its previous estimate in October, reflecting optimism that easing inflation and stronger private consumption will help reinvigorate the economy.

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The new forecast marks a 0.3 percentage point increase from its previous estimate in October, reflecting optimism that easing inflation and stronger private consumption will help reinvigorate the economy.

The World Bank (WB) has revised its growth outlook for Egypt upward, projecting a 3.8% year-on-year expansion for the fiscal year 2024-25. The new forecast marks a 0.3 percentage point increase from its previous estimate in October, reflecting optimism that easing inflation and stronger private consumption will help reinvigorate the economy. In its latest Middle East and North Africa Economic Update, titled Shifting Gears: The Private Sector as an Engine of Growth in the Middle East and North Africa, the WB noted that Egypt’s growth had slowed to 2.4% in FY 2023/2024.

This was slightly below its earlier forecast and attributed the deceleration to weak industrial output, lower Suez Canal revenues, and ongoing restrictions on imports. The downturn in Suez Canal revenues remains a key concern, as receipts are expected to fall to USD 3.7 billion this fiscal year — a sharp USD 5.1 billion below levels recorded before the onset of the conflict in Gaza. As of February, vessel traffic through the strategic waterway was still 54% below pre-war averages, reflecting the persistent impact of shipping reroutes.

Despite these headwinds, the World Bank sees Egypt’s growth path stabilizing, maintaining its FY 2025-26 forecast at 4.2%. While this figure falls just short of the Egyptian government’s 4.5% target, it signals continued economic momentum amid improving macroeconomic conditions.