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- The continent could see more than 122 million infections and 300,000 deaths from the coronavirus
- under the worst-case scenario, the death rate could touch3.3 million and 1.2 billion infections
U.N. Economic Commission for Africa has projected a very disturbing scenario for Africa under COVIS 19. According to its latest report based on modelling from Imperial College London, the continent could see more than 122 million infections and 300,000 deaths from the coronavirus this year even under the best-case scenario with “intense social distancing.” Without appropriate interventions against the virus, under the worst-case scenario, the death rate could touch3.3 million and 1.2 billion infections.
As of April 17, Africa had more than 18,000 confirmed virus cases. Experts feel that the rate of spread of Coronavirus in Africa looks worryingly similar to the case of Europe. South Africa, which has the highest number of infections, reported a slower rate after it began a strict lockdown. However, other nations – such as Burkina Faso, the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Algeria – have seen higher than average fatalities.
Africa’s weak and underfunded health systems will come under severe stress. The continent will need atleast$44 billion for testing, personal protective equipment, and treatment, while in a worst-case scenario the cost will be $446 billion the report said.
Poverty, densely populated urban dwellings widespread health problems make Africa particularly vulnerable to the virus, the U.N. report said. The highest prevalence of certain underlying health conditions, including tuberculosis and HIV/AIDS, make the African population more exposed.
Michel Yao, the WHO’s emergency operations manager in Africa reported that one projection over the next six months estimated more than 10 million severe cases of the virus.
The new report also warns of severe economic recession across Africa amid the pandemic. The growth in the worst-case scenario will contract 2.6% and an estimated 27 million people will be pushed into extreme poverty.
About 20 European and African leaders this week urged for an immediate moratorium on all African debt payments, public and private until the pandemic is over. At least $100 billion in immediate financial help was also mooted so that countries can focus on fighting the virus.
