US Agriculture Trade Deficit Widens

March 3, 2025

(3 Minutes Read)

The US is now facing a future of persistent agricultural trade deficits. The country imported more food than exported every year since 2023. Before then, the only other annual deficits were in 2019 and 2020, during President Donald Trump’s trade war with China, and several years before 1960.

Inbound shipments of everything from avocados to coffee and sugar are expected to drive the US’s agriculture trade deficit to a record USD 49bn this year.

The US has never imported so much food. Inbound shipments of everything from avocados to coffee and sugar are expected to drive the country’s agriculture trade deficit to a record USD 49 billion this year, the US Department of Agriculture said in its trade outlook report. At the same time, America’s most widely grown crops have been losing overseas markets over the past decades.

Trump has pledged 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canadian goods from March, along with an additional 10% tax on China’s goods. That could make things worse, raising the cost of importing food if countries retaliate and farming goods get caught in the crosshairs.

American imports of farm goods are forecast to climb 6.5% in the year ending September 30 to USD 219.5 billion, with inbound shipments of avocados, orange juice, and coffee accounting for much of the increase, the USDA said. Exports are forecast at USD170.5 billion, 2.2% lower than a year earlier.

Avocado imports from Mexico, the largest commodity in terms of import volume, are expected to increase on strong demand and improved growing conditions, the USDA said. Cocoa and sugar are also added to the import bill. While some grain exports are expected to rise, traditional American crops have been losing allure overseas for years, with Russia overtaking the US as the world’s top wheat shipper and Brazil surpassing the US as the biggest exporter of corn, cotton, and soybeans.