The UN's World Population Prospects 2022 report, released on the 11 th of July, the World Population Day, is very fascinating from an African perspective. Of Course, it has some interesting critical insights also. It reckons 2022 as a milestone year when the global population will touch eight billion by November 15 and predicts that India will surpass China as the world's most populous country in 2023. But, the most compelling disclosure of the report is the evolving demographic trend in the African continent and its global implications.
By 2030, it estimates that the world’s population could swell to 8.5 billion and 9.7 billion in 2050. A significant chunk of this is expected to come from the five sub-Saharan countries including the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, Nigeria, and the United Republic of Tanzania.
This surge in population in Sub Saharan Africa is in contrast to the global trends. Since 1950, the growth in the global population has considerably slowed down, falling to less than one per cent in 2020. A sizeable drop-in fertility rate is the predominant reason for the slow down. About two-thirds of the global population today lives in countries with a lifetime fertility below 2.1 births per woman.
Low or rapidly declining birth-rates remain an exception rather than the rule in most of Africa. Nevertheless, over the last four decades, the graph has started falling. it has fallen from 6.6 per woman in 1980s to 4.2 in 2022. It is estimated that with the relatively high fertility and lower mortality rates, populations of more than half of the countries in the African continent will double by 2050.This means that Africa will be home to at least 25% of the world’s population, compared with less than 10% in 1950.
Thanks to the high fertility rate in east, west and central Africa, the continent will continue to contribute substantially to the rise in the global population. By 2050, the populations of east and west Africa will each exceed that of Europe. In fact, Africa’s varied demography will be a deciding factor on whether the global population will peak in the second half of the 21 st century.
At the same time, the share of the working age population between 25 to 64 years in many Sub-Saharan African countries have gone up. The rise in the productivity period offers a "demographic dividend” to Africa. It offers an exclusive opportunity to accelerate economic growth.
Additionally, experts say that African population will have a unique quality- “Chronic youthfulness” with median age below 20. Almost 40% of all African children will be under the age of 14. By 2050, Africa will have the largest workforce, that is 1 in 3 of the global population.
However, to reap the benefits of a favourable age distribution, African countries must do their homework. They must invest in the development of their human capital, ensure access to health care and quality education, and promote opportunities for productive employment.
The growing population in Africa is bound to have repercussions within the continent as well as across the globe. It can make eradicating poverty, combatting hunger and malnutrition, and increasing the coverage of health and education systems more challenging. At the same time, the sheer weight in numbers can stall the marginalisation of the continent by impacting geopolitics, global trade, technological development, the future of the world’s dominant religions, patterns of migration, climate change and so on. Africa will be able to finally assert and make its voice heard on global platforms.
In short, with careful strategy and vision, Africa can turn its demography to its advantage and emerge out of the shadows to reimagine its position on the global stage.
