- The World Bank has forecasted for Sub-Saharan Africa’s economy to accelerate slightly to 3.6% in 2022 and rise further to 3.8% in 2023.
- The outlook reflects the fragile recovery due to the continued impact of the pandemic, reduced policy support, policy uncertainty, and worsening security situation in some countries, says the Bank’s Global Economic Prospects report.
. The World Bank has forecasted for Sub-Saharan Africa’s economy to accelerate slightly to 3.6% in 2022 and rise further to 3.8% in 2023. The outlook reflects the fragile recovery due to the continued impact .of the pandemic, reduced policy support, policy uncertainty and worsening security situation in some countries, says the Bank’s Global Economic Prospects report.
Better commodity prices are expected to support near-term recovery across the region. Nigeria and Angola are bound to benefit from higher oil prices and the gradual easing of OPEC+ production cuts. Accordingly, Nigeria is expected to grow by 2.5 percent in 2022 and 2.8 percent in 2023, while Angola’s economy is projected to grow by 3 percent on average in 2022-23.
A moderate to pre-pandemic level growth is expected in South Africa which is handicapped by structural impediments and high levels of public debt.
Agri economies like Ethiopia, Kenya, and Tanzania are likely to gain from high prices for food commodities like coffee and cotton. Nevertheless, agricultural activities for some countries can be constrained by a variety of uncertainties due to climate change such as droughts low rainfall as well as intensifying conflict.
Overall, more than a decade of gains made in poverty eradication and development across the region have got swept away due to the Pandemic. In more than third of the region’s economies, including Angola, Nigeria, and South Africa, per capita incomes are projected to be lower in 2022 compared to a decade ago.
World Bank has also identified some risks to the outlook. The growth could be hindered by several factors such as food insecurity, rising food prices, and geopolitical tensions. Any correction to the global commodity prices on account of lower international demand can affect the economic performance of the region. Countries with high debt burdens may face reduced access to external funding, forcing fiscal adjustment. World Bank further warns that Africa’s low rate of COVID-19 vaccination can be a serious threat of renewed and more severe outbreaks. This can disrupt economic activity, pose health challenges, derail structural and fiscal reforms, and result in lasting human capital losses.
