‘April is the cruellest month… sang Eliot, It turned out to be true for the ousted Presidents of Algeria and Sudan. Earlier this month, both Abdelaziz Boutefilka who ruled Algeria for 20 years and Omar al-Bashir who was at the helm in Sudan for three decades were forced to exit their offices when anti-government demonstrations swept through their countries reviving memories of uprisings in Tunisia, Egypt etc. Except for Tunisia, the outcomes of the Arab uprising have been grim. Yet, the turmoil in Sudan and Algeria show that the revolutionary spirit of the youth is very much alive.
The story behind every revolution is the same- high youth unemployment, soaring food and fuel costs, wide spread corruption, denial of basic rights, crushing of dissent, imposing decisions from the top and the list goes on. When the ailing President of Algeria, Abdelaziz Boutefilka who was always missing in action sought re-election for another 5 years, public fury knew no bounds. Similarly in Sudan, President Bashir and his coteries ruled with an iron fist for three decades. But the balkanization of the country and formation of South Sudan in 2011 taking away a lion’s share of oil reserves, broke the back bone of the economy plunging it into deep crisis. With fuel, food and cash shortages, public anger towards the repressive regime boiled over and spilled across the country.
The Protestors in Sudan and Algeria are demanding a regime change. The movement to replace autocracy with democracy has to reckon with two factors. One, the guardians of the old order, be it monarchy or the army, will try to suppress the movement. A glaring example is the case of Egypt where the military came back and tightened its grip on state and society and crushed the dissent. The constitutional amendments introduced this week by President Sisi loyalists giving him continuity till 2030 has set a very dangerous precedence. The amendments empowering the executive and military at the expense of judiciary and legislature have worried political analysts. In both Algeria and Sudan, the army let the leaders fall, but tightened its grip on power. They want the system nurtured by the dictators to survive despite the fall of the dictator. Unleashing fear factor like in the case of Egypt may not be viable for the counter revolutionary forces in Sudan and Algeria as these economies, heavily dependent on hydrocarbons are battling economic crisis after the oil price crash.
The second factor is the geopolitical intervention. As soon as the military council took charge in Sudan, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and UAE offered support to the military regime. The message is loud and clear, that they will not allow civilian movements to defeat autocracy. It is a sad commentary that UN has become a silent and passive spectator of the unfurling events.
Now the question is: will the sparks of anger and revolt in Sudan and Algeria usher in democracy? Will it have snowball effect in similarly placed autocratic countries in Africa? The pro-democracy activists and power holders across Africa are watching intensely the unfolding political drama. The ultimate outcome is likely to impact the political complexion of the continent. As the well-known Kenyan human rights activist Wangari Maathai said in March, “A wind is blowing. It is heading south, and won’t be suppressed forever.” Will that be an apocalyptical pronouncement?
