The two-week-old fighting in Sudan is ringing alarm bells across the
world. Foreign countries are rushing to evacuate their citizens.
Sudanese who are trapped in their country are trying to flee to
neighbouring countries. Chad and South Sudan are flooded by
thousands of refugees from Sudan. The death toll has already crossed
400 and thousands are wounded.
There are legitimate reasons for the anguish. Sudan, the third largest
African country stretches across a highly geopolitically volatile region. It
shares borders with seven countries. These include coup -prone Chad,
war torn Central Africa, conflict ridden Libya, Tigray region of Ethiopia
where war has just ended, militarised Eritrea, South Sudan which broke
away from Sudan in 2011 after a long bloody civil war and Egypt that is
under authoritarian rule. With their respective political structure,
eruptions in Khartoum are bound to create turbulence in the entire Horn
of Africa region.
Conflict is not new to Sudan. It witnessed two lengthy north-south civil
wars and a prolonged war in the western region of Darfur. When Lt. Gen.
Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, and Mohamed HaDagalo teamed up to oust the
dictator Omar Hassan al-Bashir, in 2019, Sudanese rejoiced at the
prospect of peace and democracy. Both came to power promising
civilian rule and democratic government. Soon the protectors became
predators. The same leaders who promised to be champions of
democracy, colluded to knock down the fragile civilian led government in
2021.
The clash between the two generals — Sudanese president and top
commander Lt. Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, who heads the country’s
military, and Vice President Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo who leads
paramilitary force known as the Rapid Support Forces- was sparked by
disputes over the issue of integration of the RSF into the military. But
the root of the issue runs deeper. When South Sudan broke away, it took
away the rich oil fields leaving Sudan far poorer contributing indirectly to
the current crisis according to experts.
The fight between the rival military groups is not only for territorial
control, but also for the control of Sudan’s dwindling economic resources
of gold and agriculture. Sudan’s Generals, as part of the game, started
soliciting foreign partners. Gulf states were wooed to invest in the virgin
and fertile farmlands bordering Nile River.
Russia is another country with deep interest in Sudan. For years, Russia
has been planning to set up a military base in Port Sudan that will give
access for its warships to – one of the world's busiest and disputed sea
lanes. In fact, Russia was on the verge of closing such a deal with
Sudan's military government – which seized power in 2021 in a coup.
Russia also has business interest in Sudan’s gold mines. According to
reports, Russia’s Wagner Group, has been smuggling gold out of Sudan.
With Wagner’s notorious reputation of patronising coup- plotting regimes
in Mali, Burkina Faso, And Central African Republic, its expanding
footprint in Sudan is viewed with concern.
Egypt has a different agenda. It sees Burhan as a potential ally in its
squabble with Ethiopia over the construction of a major dam on the Nile.
These developments explain why foreign governments are keen to
influence the political developments in Sudan.
A host of global powers including the US, Saudi Arabia and UAE have
urged for ending the hostilities. But the War lords are bent on crushing
each other. Political analysts predict that the current power struggle
between the two rival military groups has the potency to morph into a
more complex civil war and spill over to its neighbours that can deepen
the political and economic instability of the region. Therefore, the priority
should be on swift ending of the battle between the wilful military leaders
before it spreads like a wildfire engulfing Sudan and sucking in outside
actors as well as its neighbours. These two greedy military leaders
cannot be allowed to thwart the peace and security of a country and the
region.
The U.N., African Union, and The Intergovernmental Authority on
Development (IGAD), should collectively strive to prevent escalation of
the situation. Active engagement of regional powers (in the Horn and the
Gulf) and broad international coordination will be critical in this endeavour.
