The paradox faced by South Africans is – the old order is dying, but the new one is yet to be born. Given the situation, the indication is that no single party would receive a majority. The next government in South Africa is most likely to be a hung government.
The anti-apartheid struggle in South Africa continues to be a source of inspiration for worldwide movements against injustice. Spearheaded by the African National Congress (ANC) and led by iconic leaders like Nelson Mandela, Walter Sisulu, and Oliver Tambo, the ANC rose to prominence during the movement. It became the undisputed ruling party since the country’s first democratic elections in 1994.
However, the ANC’s popularity has seen a drastic fall over the last few years. In the 2019 general elections, it could muster only a 57% share of votes. In the coming 2024 elections, for the first time in 30 years, the party may lose the majority needed to form a national government. According to political analysts, it will win only 40.2 percent of votes. In short, the May 29 national and provincial elections in South Africa are expected to alter the country’s political landscape.
In the post-apartheid era, South Africans pinned high expectations on the ANC. It is not that South Africa lacks the resources to solve its economic woes. It is just that the ruling party lacked the commitment to evolve an effective strategy to bridge the inequalities. Black communities continue to face stark disparities caused by a cocktail of corruption and government inefficiency. The economic growth has tapered off and gross debt rose from 23.6 percent of GDP in 2008 to 71.1 percent in 2022.
Of course, some progress was seen in healthcare, education, and access to basic services. However, the ANC’s failure to address critical issues like social justice, corruption, and poverty eroded public trust and confidence. In recent years, public disillusionment has further deepened due to persisting power crises, governance failures, unemployment, corruption, and internal divisions.
According to a World Bank report of 2022, South Africa is the most unequal country in the world. The major drivers of inequality included racial bias, the legacy of apartheid, a missing middle class, and highly unequal land ownership. The report stated that about 10 percent of the population, controlled 80 percent of the wealth. Black people make up 80 percent of the employable population but account for 16.9 percent of top management jobs. At the same time, whites who are about 8 percent of the employable population hold 62.9 percent of top management jobs.
Yet despite the free fall, ANC has one key advantage- A splintered, disorganized opposition that could keep it in power. With 70 political parties and 11 independent candidates contesting the May 29 national and provincial elections, the opposition presents a weak front.
The three main opposition parties are the Democratic Alliance (DA), Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) and Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP). The greatest irony of the South African elections according to experts is that the decline in the ANC’s support is not getting converted into better support for the top opposition parties. On the contrary, voter support seems to have hit stagnation. This is despite the surge in the number of young voters who have no special attachment to ANC. The share of votes for DA, the ANC’s nearest rival, is estimated to be at 21.9 percent – slightly above the 2019 polls. The stagnation is attributed to the entry of new political players in some of the established constituencies of political parties.
Rather than consolidating, opposition parties are getting even more fragmented. According to the South African Electoral Commission (IEC), 31 new political parties have registered to contest the upcoming elections. The indication is, that the South African voters, left with no viable alternative, may end up voting for ANC.
The paradox faced by South Africans is – the old order is dying, but the new one is yet to be born. Given the situation, the indication is that no single party would receive a majority. The next government in South Africa is most likely to be a hung government.
As South Africa grapples with persistent challenges and an uncertain future, the rise and fall of the ANC serve as a sober reminder for many democracies. Political parties who come to power riding on the wave of liberation movements, cannot stay in power on the strength of past glories. Whether the ANC can reclaim its former glory and regain the trust of the electorate, or the opposition will be able to cobble up a majority to unseat ANC remains a critical question. Either way, South Africa is in for a new game.
