(5 minutes read) (Pan Africa)
Analysts are debating what will be the impact of Russia’s invasion in Ukraine and its relationship with Africa. Admittedly, Russian presence is growing in different countries in the African continent in diverse fields, such as trade, aid, military training, aerospace and paramilitary security. In some countries in the Sahel region and even in Libya in Northern Africa, there are Russian mercenaries present, so goes the allegations. The presence of Russian mercenaries in the so called fragile Republics in the continent has been severely criticized by ex-colonists particularly the western forces, which are now trying to enhance their presence to counter the growing influence of China and that of Russia, though the latter’s clout is lesser in intensity and content.
Importantly, the South African government condemned Russia’s action in terse terms, and called on the invading country to immediately withdraw its forces from Ukraine in line with the United Nations charter. But, as things stand now, other African countries are conspicuously maintaining a studied silence. Whether their silence is lauded or just to remain neutral in the escalating tension can be judged only with the passage of time. With Russia-Africa summit scheduled for later this year and many African countries are preparing their wish lists to be raised at the summit, one can surmise that the responses from these countries will be circumspect and more importantly calculated.
The open support given by China to the Kremlin can be another factor that can buttress the African reaction more muted or neither here nor there. Yet, it can trigger a degree of unpleasantness in countries which have strong democratic institutions. Also, the pressure exerted by the western forces, alibi NATO and multilateral lenders put together can counterbalance the joint power exerted by Russia and China together.
The lesser known fact is that some of the North African countries import grains from Ukraine. The supply can be disrupted if peace does not return to the country. The disruptions in the supply chain can lead to increased prices and switch over to other destinations for import. The other possible impact is the engagement of multilateral funding agencies to focus on Ukraine for the rehabilitation works, cutting off the African continent from its immediate focus. There can be a lurking fear among African nations while seeking military aid from Russia-the fear that it would be convoluted later into an internal interference by that country in their domestic matters. This lurking apprehension is there in most of the countries in Africa and elsewhere which have sought aid and loans from China. The often quoted example is that of Sri Lanka, which is heavily indebted to China. The Island Nation has given China land and other privileges in return for liberal loans and other concessions in return.
Can there be some positive spin off for the continent from the stand off between Russia and Ukraine? There can be increasing calls from countries like Africa to change the global power structure and for reforming the functioning of UN organizations. Drawing lessons from Kiev, some of the lesser developed countries may press for better security arrangements from UN organizations in the event of recurrence of a Ukraine episode in their homeland. The invasion is a negation of sovereignty of a country and interference in its internal affairs by a mighty force citing unilateral and hidden reasons. The world is still debating what are the real reasons for Russian intervention in Ukraine and what Russian forces are trying to seek. Russia may have their own explanation to justify the interference. But to explain such involvement in the context of tension assuming to develop (or already assumed) a global proportion, may be something Russia and its allies would find difficult to explain before humanity convincingly.
Amongst the few countries that are supporting Russia in the present stalemate is China, which has considerable exposure in various countries in Africa in diverse fields like infrastructure, mining, trade etc. it is a moot question whether the Africans would like to see increasing Chinese clout in Africa from a neutral perspective although the country is not directly involved in the conflict but by proxy, standing solidly behind Russia. Indeed, the coming months can trigger a lot of debate amongst Africans about what the conflict portends for them and a careful dissection of its impact.
