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Disruptions appear inevitable, but Pretoria is making a last-ditch effort to secure a trade breakthrough with the United States. With the AGOA agreement set to expire tomorrow, concerns are mounting over the limited time left for meaningful debate and the complexity of navigating US legislative procedures.
President Cyril Ramaphosa has urged for the renewal of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), warning that its termination could severely damage US-Africa trade ties and unravel decades of progress. Speaking at the South Africa-US Trade and Investment Dialogue during the UN General Assembly, Ramaphosa emphasized AGOA’s importance in supporting South African industries — from automotive manufacturing to advanced tech hubs.
Trade Minister Parks Tau remains engaged in urgent talks with US counterparts to secure an updated trade deal, including AGOA renewal and potential relief from steep tariffs. These talks follow former President Donald Trump’s August imposition of a 30% tariff on South African goods, citing trade imbalances, one-sided policies, and barriers to entry for US companies. Central to US criticism is South Africa’s Black Economic Empowerment (BEE) policy, which mandates 30% local ownership in certain sectors.
After threatening tariffs in April 2025, the US delayed implementation by 90 days to allow for negotiations. Although South Africa submitted a proposal in May, the two sides failed to reach an agreement by the August deadline.
Despite the setbacks, Tau said progress has been made: both parties are now engaged in detailed discussions over draft texts. A revised document has been exchanged, and formal negotiations are expected before the end of October. “There’s movement. We’re at the point of negotiating on actual text,” Tau said. “We’ve received a revised version from the US following a high-level meeting last week. That in itself is progress, though the road ahead remains difficult.”
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However, some experts remain skeptical. Economist Dawie Roodt believes South Africa may have missed its chance to strike a deal with Trump, stating: “It’s probably too late — South Africa didn’t do enough to satisfy Trump’s demands.” He speculated that South Africa might be compelled to withdraw its genocide case against Israel to appease Trump and advance negotiations.
Trade specialist Thina Nodada offered a stark assessment: “We need to prepare for the reality of losing AGOA and living with the 30% tariffs. Trump appears unwavering in his stance.”
