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Poverty Projection in Nigeria by WB Causes Unease to Tinubu’s Administration in Nigeria

Poverty Projection in Nigeria by WB Causes Unease to Tinubu’s Administration in Nigeria

(3 Minutes Read)

The removal of fuel subsidy and the unification of foreign exchange rates by President Bola Tinubu’s administration were designed to stabilize the economy and attract investment. Instead, they have unleashed an uneven reality, where the wealthy adapt and thrive, while millions of ordinary Nigerians struggle to survive.

A section of analysts feels that as economic reforms in Nigeria unfolds, the income disparity between the rich and poor is widening. A few continue to thrive in luxury while millions struggle to survive.

The removal of fuel subsidy and the unification of foreign exchange rates by President Bola Tinubu’s administration were designed to stabilize the economy and attract investment. Instead, they have unleashed an uneven reality, where the wealthy adapt and thrive, while millions of ordinary Nigerians struggle to survive.

The government’s economic team points to progress. Inflation is slowing. The naira is gaining strength currently trading below N1,500 against the US dollar. Foreign reserves now above $42 billion, highest since 2019. Yet, behind the numbers lies an uncomfortable truth, the majority of Nigerians are poorer today than they were two years ago.

According to the World Bank’s Nigeria Development Update titled “From Policy to People: Bringing the Reform Gains Home,” poverty levels are projected to climb to 61 percent in 2025, meaning about 139 million Nigerians will live on less than $3 a day, up from 129 million in 2024.

Between 2019 and 2023, average consumption fell by 6.7 percent, especially in urban areas, while poverty rose from 40 percent (81 million people) to a projected 61 percent (139 million people) by 2025, the report said.

The cost of transportation, food, rent, and healthcare has outpaced earnings. Once-comfortable families are now rationing meals. Many children have dropped out of private schools for public ones, and countless workers have relocated from city centres to far-flung suburbs where rent is cheaper.

But while the poor tighten their belts, Nigeria’s wealthy seem untouched by the crisis. Across Lekki, Maitama, and Ikoyi, new estates are springing up. Car showrooms are selling luxury SUVs at record rates. Restaurants serving N50,000-per-plate meals are fully booked on weekends.

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The rich are not just surviving the harsh economy; they are exploiting its volatility. Many have investments in foreign currencies, real estate, and blue-chip stocks that profit from inflation and devaluation. The same reforms that have destabilised the poor, such as FX unification, have multiplied the assets of those with dollar holdings.

Some analysts describe this as “reform inequality”, policies that reward financial sophistication and access to capital but punish low-income earners who live hand-to-mouth. While an elite minority sends their children to foreign universities and flies abroad for medical care, millions of Nigerians are trapped in failing public schools and hospitals.

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