OECD Revises Down Global Growth Forecast

(3 Minutes Read)

Forecasts for 2025 and 2026 revise down expected growth by 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points, respectively, citing a technical assumption that existing tariff rates as of mid-May will remain in place, despite ongoing legal disputes.

The latest Economic Outlook from the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) is projecting a slowdown in global growth. Forecasts for 2025 and 2026 revise down expected growth by 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points, respectively, citing a technical assumption that existing tariff rates as of mid-May will remain in place, despite ongoing legal disputes.

The American economy will be particularly hard hit, the report forecast, with growth of just 1.6 per cent in 2025, 0.6 percentage points lower than the OECD’s March projection. While inflation is expected to ease across most G20 countries, the overall inflation forecast for the US this year was raised by 0.4 percentage points to 3.2 per cent.

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The OECD report warns that if current trends, including rising trade barriers, tighter financial conditions, weakening business and consumer confidence, and increased policy uncertainty, persist, they could significantly undermine the global economy.