The last word on the Nigerian presidential elections is yet to be out. Bola Tinubu—the former Governor of Lagos State and nominee of the All Progressives Congress, won the disputed election with 36.61% of the vote share. The two main contestants, who were opposed to Tinubu -Peter Obi of Nigeria’s Labour Party and former Nigerian Vice President Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) are in no mood to concede the defeat. They are determined to approach the Supreme Court, the final arbiter, ostensibly aggrieved by the process hiccups and alleged malpractices that had happened in the election.
Importantly, the gubernatorial elections for states and assemblies which should have happened by now for the states, have been postponed for a few days,presumably to set right the digital system which was reportedly had gone haywire in the presidential election, a fact vouched by independent observers including representatives ECOWAS. Undoubtedly, there were malfunctioning digital devices in many places. But the moot point is whether such malfunctioning of machines and other charges like complicity of Independent Election Commission (INEC) officials in rigging, uploading wrong results, truckloads of people from neighbouring countries coming to vote, etc would remain as mere allegations unless substantiated with facts and evidence.
Although INEC conceded that some machines -Bimodal Voter Accreditation (BVA) devices- which were used to accredit voters failed because of technical problems, among other things, it squarely denies any rigging of elections. Some of the independent agencies like BBC which were monitoring the elections disproved the assertions of large- scale rigging and gross abnormalities in the election. The final verdict on the election results would have to come from the apex court, who would take a decision based on evidence adduced applying rule of law . It is also gratifying to note that INEC has agreed to part with information that parties contesting the results are seeking, to place facts before the apex court. Till the time verdict is out, one has to wait how things will play out. There cannot be any finality of decision till the petitions are disposed of.
www.trendsnafrica.com and our sister digital publication Africa4U have been extensively covering the current Nigerian elections because of its uniqueness. However incomplete the election process as of now, the elections have some key takeaways. Foremost feature of the presidential election was its tri-polar contest, making predictions most difficult given the complex election laws of the country. Not only the winner has to get the majority but should bag at least 25% vote share in two-third of the states of the total 36 states. Powerful entry of the Labour Party, in an otherwise bipolar contest, has given a new dynamism to the election process. Political analysts see a lot of merit in the emergence of a third party; but how effective is that development against the backdrop of an electorate divided on tribal loyalties and to some extent religious grounds should be seen. The best thing that can happen to the country touted as the most industrialized nation in the continent if such primordial instincts and crude loyalties are replaced by either ideological polarisation or driven by the attributes of candidates.
Undeniably, social media played an important role in the electioneering. The new player – Labour Party -mostly dependent on social media to reach out to the people, may be because of the shoe string budget at its command. But analysts opine that the interplay of social media has been a mixed bag, as has been the case elsewhere in the world. During the election as also post -election, social media has been used not alone for disseminating news fast and swift but also spreading disinformation and misinformation. Some of the fact-checking organizations, which scientifically analysed the viral videos trawled, confirmed that they were umpteen fake and doctored videos and images were in circulation. Yet, no one can rule out the role social media is going to play in future elections. Does it suggest that the Independent election commission or the apex court should take a view on the spread of misinformation and disinformation through social media is something that political analysts are discussing, fully realizing that the dividing line between what is fake and real is blurred.
The extent of use of electronic machines in the election process has to be discussed to have a clear picture. Feedback www.trendnafrica.com received from various quarters indicate that not many are clear about the role of digital technology in Nigerian elections outside the west African country. Electronic Voting Machines EVMs) were not used in the election. Digital platforms were used for electronically transmitting or transferring the result of the polling unit directly to the collation centre. Also, the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (Bvas) is used to upload a scanned copy of the result sheet to the INEC Result Viewing Portal (IReV). The INEC blamed the surge in traffic for its inability to publish the results in real time, but almost a week after the first ballot was cast. This is indicative of the need for further fine-tuning the electoral system to make it modern, credible, transparent and scientific.
Nigeria has gone to election at a time the country was beset with a number of problems stemming partly from developments outside the country, such as vicissitudes stemming from Russian-Ukraine war, and issues that were privy to itself such as the replacement of the domestic currency with a newly designed bank notes, which later was reversed by the Supreme Court at least for some time and record inflation. Prior to the elections, there were demonstrations against the note ban, which the ruling party sources maintain helped considerably in reducing the vote buying, which is contested by the opposition. Yet, to the credit of the country, the elections were mostly free and fair without reporting of any large-scale violence, which was not the case in the earlier elections. That is a positive spin off.
The elections have thrown open a number of possibilities and that way triggered a lot of speculations. For instance, what would happen if the court says that a run off of the election to be conducted and if the winning party goes against the verdict of the court. That would prolong the process of election. It augurs well for democracy that these issues are sorted out at the earliest for its own sake to build strong democratic institutions in the country. That is the challenge before the most populous country in Africa.
