News Analysis
Finally, what everyone predicted, whether with the right intentions or not, has come true. French President Emmanuel Macron has romped home in the election with a much -reduced majority. www.trendsnafrica.com takes an assessment of what it means to Africa and its impact on the Western countries’ Africa focus in the coming months, years and possibly decades.
Importantly, the African Union has welcomed his re-election. Positive vibes also were echoed from countries like Senegal, Chad and a few others. Of course, the congratulatory messages were crafted with care and introspection. It is understandable, given the geopolitical developments, that has polarised countries and regions. The Russia-Ukraine war could be cited as a flashpoint. But even before that, seeds of distrust were sown and what has played out in the recent days were events that emanate from that.
www.trendsnafrica.com had carried an editorial a few months ago on the charismatic French President and how he was playing out his lead role in evolving an Africa -focussed policy framework for France in particular and the Western bloc in general. We predicted his increasing role in world politics and the crucial role he would be playing in shaping the West’s policies and outlook towards Africa. Aided by his young age, commitment and support that he commands from his fellow heads of states in other European countries, Macron has been the most active leader who propounded a dynamic Africa policy. He would have visited African countries more regularly than any other western leader. He also hosted them regularly and took lead positions in matters relating to economic woes or issues relating to pandemic or deep debts that most of the countries in Africa have caught up with.
Reasons are not far to seek. French companies have a larger interest in the continent not alone for sourcing their critical raw materials but also in selling their products. French investments across the continent have been growing so also its influence. It is also true that the discontentment about the past colonial power is growing and of late, has assumed larger proportions as evidenced in the diplomatic overtures shown by countries like Mali, Burkina Faso etc where the ruling military Juntas had gone publicly against France. That has forced Marcon to withdraw or phase out French security forces, which are stationed in the troubled Sahel region to train the local armies to empower them to face the Jihadists. Can Macron regain the confidence of these countries, which they reposed on France and Western forces to protect their sovereignty and fight for their existence against the Jihadists, who are blocking the pace of developments in the region by indulging in subversive activities.
It is an open secret that such divisive plans are getting support from outside sources. Allegations are flying thick and fast that Russia and China are behind the support extended to divisive forces. The Western forces point out that the presence of the Russian army -Wagner-which is close to Russian President Putin is present in some African countries including countries in the Sahel region and Libya in North Africa. Russia has termed those charges as a wild allegation not supported by an iota of facts nor backed by evidence. But fact is that most of the African countries are getting alienated from their western colonial powers. Even some of the erstwhile allies like Rwanda, which once upon a time boasted to have French as the national language, is drifting away from Paris. Francophone countries, which once touted to implement a common currency for the region-Eco-is less enamoured or even abandoned that proposal.
Can Macron as the most visible face of the western forces script a transformative change in the relationship with Africa, where there is a growing influence of China and Russia, which has taken a cognitive turn with the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war? Some of the influential African leaders have openly supported Russia in the UN forums against sanctions on that country. Yet, there seems to be a ray of hope for the western forces since they could make a considerable dent in the approach to North African countries. Algeria, Tunisia, Egypt, Morocco etc are doing more business with European countries now. Probably, those countries have huge business interests in the evolving strong diplomatic architecture to fulfil their mutual interests. Most of the countries in the West have to reduce their dependence on Russia for oil and gas. The spate of new agreements that are signed these days between North African countries and the West are an example of that.
They are for import of fuel and, in turn, the North African countries demand higher investments in their critical sectors. There is a quid pro quo in such deals. May be Macron in his new innings as the French President, and an unnamed leader of the western countries, start his new innings by mending relations with North Africa and slowly spread his aura of influence to Sub-Saharan Africa, their traditional allies. West cannot alienate sub-Saharan Africa in any case. That also may be one of the greatest challenges that Macron may face in his second innings.
