Political observers are of the view that Somalia is heading for a dangerous political crisis after the members of parliament on April 12 endorsed a bill to delay elections by two years. The move has escalated tensions with the potential to explode into widespread violence unless external partners mediate and get the political rivals return to the negotiating table. Experts feel that Somalia’s external partners, led by the African Union (AU) and backed by the U.S., the UN Security Council and the European Union, should step in without delay to bring all stakeholders to draft a roadmap to timely elections.
The president’s opponents have vowed to resist extension of his rule and it is rumoured that the opposition is planning to launch a parallel government. The already existing cracks in a security apparatus long divided along clan lines have deepened.
For the last few months, Somalia’s politicians have been discussing the preparations of elections. President Farmajo and leaders of Somalia’s subnational units agreed on a framework for indirect elections on 17 September 2020 but failed to work out the voting system. After the term of Farmajo’s four-year term ended on 8 February, the opposition demanded that he hand over power to an interim government headed by the prime minister. A demonstration to press home this demand was crushed brutally. Finally the talks that took place on April 3rd, failed.A special session convened by lower house mandated the National Independent Electoral Commission to hold elections by universal suffrage in two years. The president signed the bill into law two days later.
This has led to a total collapse of trust among Somalia’s rival political actors. Farmajo’s opponents denounced the extension of Farmajo’s mandate, threatening formation of a parallel government. The risk is high that parties will use force to secure political concessions. Moreover, it is a tough test for Somalia’s army and Police that are at loggerheads.
