June 1-15 2019
As Africa attracts boardroom discussions as to how to penetrate the expanding market, there variant views among Africa watchers on the strategy of global leaders. Some believe that US President Trump’s lack of interest in Africa and focus more on America First has had its repercussions across the world and more deeply on Africa. Its engagement with the continent dwindled mainly because Trump thought the region does not hold export potentials. Bereft of hegemonic undertones and in getting loyalties of some of the countries in the region, the earlier policies followed by his predecessors, he thought, did not serve any useful purpose. May be his views were more conditioned by the mindset of a businessman and less of a statesman. Even the appointment of a top functionary in the rank of an Assistant Secretary exclusively to look after the Africa Affairs took considerably longer time and only when there was severe criticism both from the opposition and also from his Grant Old Party.
To believe that China took advantage of the vacuum created by the US in Africa will be a naïve proposition since that country has had its strong footprint even during the time of earlier US presidents. China seems to be more driven by economic and investment reasons. China’s engagement in the geopolitical sphere of Africa seemed more to protect its economic interests rather than anything beyond that. Of late, Chinese investments into the continent seem to be slowing down mainly attributed to the trade war dynamics with the US. According to political observers, China has become cautious in parking investments and resources in areas where the economic returns are risky, long or uncertain. There are people who believe that China may face a severe challenge in the export front, though the latest data published does not indicate any decline or deceleration in the exports. Of course, these are official figures given by China.
Significantly, as reported in these columns several times, Russia is gung –ho about Africa, particularly in recent times. But Russian involvement is unlike that of the US and China and more covert. It is common knowledge of how Russians operated in Madagascar in the Spring of 2018 during the election times when Russian teams landed in the island disguised as tourists and the dirty tricks they played to ensure win of the ruling president Hery Rajaonarimampianina. Upon failure of the mission, Moscow changed sides and supported the eventual winner -Andry Rajoelina, who refused to play to the tunes of Russians. Moscow’s Madagascar mission is an eloquent narration of its deep-seated intentions to play a crucial role in the region. Russia may try to tempt African countries with offers of military assistance, easy money, and big-ticket investments. For certain, Africa will not be the same as it has grown wiser from its experiences.
