(3 Minutes Read)
IMF Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said that with many governments newly elected in 2024, economic policy uncertainty is elevated, adding that the global growth outlook was broadly unchanged from October, “divergences across countries are widening”.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised its global growth forecast by one-tenth of a percentage point. In its latest World Economic Outlook, it said it expected global growth to reach 3.3% this year, and to remain at this level in 2026.
IMF Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said that with many governments newly elected in 2024, economic policy uncertainty is elevated, adding that the global growth outlook was broadly unchanged from October, “divergences across countries are widening”.
The US economic growth forecast for 2025 has been revised upward by 0.5 percentage points to 2.7%. Its forecast for the Eurozone has, however, been downgraded by 0.2 percentage points to 1%.
The growth outlook for emerging market economies remains stable, with the IMF saying it expects growth in sub-Saharan Africa to pick up this year to 4.2%. The global inflation will continue decelerating, dropping to 4.2% in 2025 and 3.5% in 2026. The IMF said this would allow for a further normalization of monetary policy and end the global disruptions of recent years.
It warned against an intensification of protectionist policies, in the form of a new wave of tariffs. The IMF said this could exacerbate trade tensions, lower investments, reduce market efficiency, and again disrupt supply chains.
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The IMF’s new forecast comes days before the inauguration of US President-elect Donald Trump, who has suggested he will impose a 10 % tariff on global imports.
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