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In the Middle East and North Africa, the IMF has lowered the real GDP growth forecast to 2 per cent for 2023, a downgrade by 1.1 percentage points from the last projections in April, a significant lowering. The IMF also said that persistent structural hurdles would constrain growth in the medium term.
In the Middle East and North Africa, the IMF has lowered the real GDP growth forecast to 2 per cent for 2023, a downgrade by 1.1 percentage points from the last projections in April, a significant lowering. The IMF also said that persistent structural hurdles would constrain growth in the medium term. Other factors influencing the slowdown include lower oil production, tight policy settings in emerging market and middle-income economies, the conflict in Sudan, and other country-specific factors. The slowdown forecast was made before the conflict broke out. However, the IMF said economic growth in the Middle East and North Africa region was expected to accelerate to 3.4 per cent in 2024.
Sudan’s GDP will contract by more than 18% in 2023 due to the war which has raged in the country since April this year. In the six-month World Economic Outlook published on Tuesday by the IMF, it is said that the conflict is destroying infrastructure and compromising access to basic services. The war which began on April 15 is being fought between General Abdel Fattah al-Burhane and the Rapid Support Forces under General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo. It has killed more than 9,000 people and displaced over 5 million people in one of the world’s poorest countries.
With inflation already in triple figures before the conflict, the dire economic outlook has worsened since April. Africa’s third largest producer of gold, sales have officially come to a virtual standstill, depriving the country of its main source of foreign currency income. Agriculture, one of the most important sectors accounting for 40% of GDP and 80% of jobs, has also been badly hit with trade and financing severely impacted.
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The Sudanese pound has recently plummeted, losing 50% of its value since the start of the war. With the Sudanese pound losing 50% of its value since April, the IMF warns that the impact of the conflict could be long-lasting and reconstruction likely to take years. The institute adds that neighbouring countries and North Africa will also suffer from a weakened Sudanese economy.
