Fitch Forecasts Significant Reduction in Egypt’s Debt

May 5, 2025

(3 Minutes Read)

The agency expects Egypt’s public debt to decline to 50.2% of GDP by FY 2033-34, down by 12.5 percentage points from current levels, signalling improved fiscal sustainability and the effectiveness of ongoing reforms.

Fitch Solutions has forecast a gradual improvement in Egypt’s economic indicators from the current fiscal year through 2027-28, driven by the government’s ongoing fiscal reforms and economic policies.

These projections align with government expectations of a reduction in both public and external debt beginning this year and continuing over the next three years, supported by stronger cash flows and enhanced fiscal management.

Fitch also anticipates public revenues to grow by 38.5%, compared to a 30.6% increase in expenditures during the same period. This would contribute to reducing the fiscal deficit by 1.6% of GDP.

According to the IMF, Egypt’s public debt fell to 89% of GDP by the end of FY2023/2024, down from 95.7% the previous year. Additionally, Egypt’s net foreign reserves rose to USD 47.757 billion by the end of March 2025, an increase of USD 364 million compared to February, according to the latest figures from the Central Bank of Egypt.

Fitch has also affirmed Egypt’s long-term credit rating at ‘B’ with a stable outlook and projects the public debt-to-GDP ratio to drop to 78.9% by FY 2025-26.