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The Reuter poll, held from October 9 to 23, anticipates that GDP growth will gain momentum, reaching 4.7% in the fiscal year 2025-26 and further increasing to 5.3% by 2026-27. The current fiscal year, 2023-24, has seen GDP growth drop to 2.4%, down from 3.8% the previous year.
Egypt’s economy is on track to grow by 4.0% by June 2025. The North African country is slowly emerging from austerity measures taken as a precondition of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The slow progress of the Egyptian economy was revealed in a recent survey of economists conducted by the news agency Reuters.
The Reuter poll, held from October 9 to 23, anticipates that GDP growth will gain momentum, reaching 4.7% in the fiscal year 2025-26 and further increasing to 5.3% by 2026-27. The current fiscal year, 2023-24, has seen GDP growth drop to 2.4%, down from 3.8% the previous year.
Contributing factors include a currency crisis and the ongoing conflict in neighboring Gaza, adversely impacting tourism and Suez Canal revenues.
Earlier this year, Egypt entered a significant agreement with the UAE’s sovereign fund ADQ, granting development rights for real estate along its Mediterranean coastline for USD 24 billion. This deal set the stage for a USD 8 billion financial reform package with the IMF that followed in March.
While inflation is decelerating, it is expected to remain elevated, with forecasts of 20.4% for 2024/25 and 11.4% for 2025-26. Inflation rose slightly to 26.4% in September, down from a peak of 38.0% in September 2023.
The IMF also predicts a 4.1% growth rate for Egypt’s economy in 2025. Analysts expect the Egyptian pound to depreciate further, predicting it will reach about 50.4 per dollar by the end of June 2025 and 52.0 by the end of June 2026.
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Additionally, analysts forecast that the central bank’s overnight lending rate will decline to 22.25% by the end of June 2025 and further to 14.25% by June 2026, which may provide much-needed support for households and businesses in the coming years.
