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The report, titled United States Tariff Shockwaves: Impacts on the Arab Region, defines a significant impact as when 5% or more of a country’s global exports are directed to the United States.
Egypt is among six Arab countries expected to face a “significant” impact if US President Trump’s proposed tariff measures are fully implemented, according to a new policy brief from the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (ESCWA).
The report, titled United States Tariff Shockwaves: Impacts on the Arab Region, defines a significant impact as when 5% or more of a country’s global exports are directed to the United States.
Along with Egypt, the report identifies Jordan, Lebanon, Bahrain, Tunisia, and Morocco as among the most vulnerable. Jordan is projected to be the hardest hit, with nearly a quarter of its exports dependent on the US market.
Despite the projected disruption, the outlook for overall export performance remains relatively resilient—especially among members of the Agadir Agreement (Egypt, Morocco, Tunisia, and Jordan).
ESCWA estimates that global exports from these countries will contract only modestly, declining by 0.3% year-on-year in 2025. Meanwhile, the broader Arab region is forecast to see virtually flat export growth, with a slight -0.01% change, buoyed in part by a projected 0.1% rise in exports from Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries.
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However, US imports to Agadir countries are set to take a sharper hit, with a 24.7% decline expected in 2025 due to rising costs. In response, ESCWA anticipates a pivot toward other major trade partners. Imports from China to these four countries are forecast to rise by 8%, while imports from the European Union are expected to increase by 3.1%. Intra-Arab trade—especially among Agadir signatories—is also projected to grow as countries adapt to new trade dynamics.
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