Conflicts and Costs: Trail of Missed Opportunities

(4 Minutes Read)

Reparation and clamour for more aid, and equitable representation in multilateral organizations, etc, are critical; but more important is conflict resolution since that alone can ensure the vast continent more resources, recognition, and an inclusive model of development.

 Economic losses due to conflicts are well documented, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa, where conflicts are happening regularly and for a long time. Countries like the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Sudan are facing severe internal disturbances, which have taken several lives, injured and displaced millions, and damaged properties worth billions. Not long ago, Ethiopia was in the grip of severe friction between the government forces and separatists in the Amhara region, a sort of ethnic cleansing, which is subdued now but only after mass killings, displacement of people, and destruction of common and individual properties. The sinister fallout of the genocide in Rwanda that happened in 1994 is manifesting in different forms and formats, and the M23 rebel aggression in DRC is an offshoot.

Various organizations have carried out periodic studies to map the losses due to conflicts and tensions. Most of the studies tried to estimate only the economic losses. According to the World Bank Study (2024), countries experiencing conflicts in Sub-Saharan Africa lost 30% of their GDP in 2024 alone. An earlier study by the World Bank, based on different variables and assumptions, found that conflict-ridden countries face an average reduction of 2.2 percentage points annually in GDP compared to conflict-free regions.

 However, these studies face several infirmities. Most of the factors that need to be taken into cognizance for a proper estimate cannot be quantified. For instance, armed conflicts put the entire system, such as infrastructure, agriculture, and access to basic services, at stake. Development expenditure is spent mostly to meet war exigencies. Also, these variables cannot be quantified, and only sweeping approximations are possible. That puts a question mark on the findings of the loss estimates.

Secondly, political instability and humanitarian crises caused by conflicts are several and last for several years. For instance, West African countries have been facing an existential threat from jihadists, which has put the development tempo of Sahel countries, particularly Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso, on the back burner. Undoubtedly, there is a cost to the perpetration of disorder and administrative logjam in these countries, which cannot be properly estimated.

 Yet another vector that cannot be estimated with precision is the cost of disruption.  Men who cannot find a proper job to support themselves and their families, pupils who are cut off from schools because of safety reasons, women who are confined to refugee camps and are denied the benefits of emancipation and welfare programs, and children and lactating mothers who lack access to hospitals, etc form important links in the expanding chain of losers of conflicts.

The fourth cost is the spillover of the armed conflicts to third countries and expenditure set apart for security preparedness. Recently, Ghana, which has been facing a massive financial downturn in recent times, is on record for the threats emanating from the Sahel region for spillover of conflicts. Beefing up security systems, importing armaments and equipment, and recruiting more security personnel can bore holes in the already strained pockets.

The psychological pushback of the conflicts is pronounced and devastating. Citizens buffeted by uncertainty cannot aspire, and pupils living with fear lose hope for the future. Women living in insecurity are denied empowerment. That loss is both in the present and future and perhaps more in quantum and in-depth.

There is a group of people who realize and espouse the need to address this loss squarely since the solution lies mostly within. Conflict management can be the top priority for Africa’s development organizations, including the African Union, ECOWAS, SADC, etc.

 That needs reprioritizing the development agenda. Reparation and clamour for more aid, and equitable representation in multilateral organizations, etc, are critical; but more important is conflict resolution since that alone can ensure the vast continent more resources, recognition, and an inclusive model of development. The sooner this awareness sinks in among political leadership, the better. That is the way forward for the continent with 55 countries and 1.3 billion.