(3 Minutes Read)
For over 50 years, Botswana’s economy thrived on natural diamonds, funding healthcare, education, and infrastructure. But the rise of lab-grown diamonds — now used in nearly half of US engagement rings — is shaking the foundation of that success.
As global demand for mined diamonds drops, Botswana faces falling revenues, rising debt (projected at 43% of GDP in 2025), and growing deficits. Public services are strained, and sectors reliant on government spending, like construction, are suffering job losses. President Duma Boko warns of a “national social existential threat” and is seeking foreign investment and diversification into tourism, agriculture, and renewable energy. But decades of slow progress and current fiscal constraints limit options.
The scale of the disruption is being compared to historic shifts in the diamond trade, such as the discovery of alluvial diamonds on Namibia’s coast in the early 20th century. Mining historian Duncan Money has argued that the present moment may prove even more consequential, given that the rise of synthetic diamonds represents a structural rather than cyclical change in demand.
For Botswana, the implications extend beyond its borders. Like other resource-dependent African economies, such as Nigeria and Angola with oil, the nation faces the challenge of aligning short-term fiscal needs with long-term development planning. Yet the crucial distinction is that diamond prices are unlikely to rebound in the way oil often does, raising questions about the sustainability of Botswana’s economic model.
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As Botswana contemplates its future, its predicament underscores a wider African reality: the vulnerability that arises from dependence on single commodities. While the country’s diamond wealth once symbolised stability and prosperity, the rapid rise of lab-grown gems reveals the urgency of rethinking development pathways that can withstand global market disruptions and deliver more inclusive growth.
