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The Bureau for Market Research (BMR) has expressed a cautiously optimistic view of South Africa’s consumer market outlook for the period 2025 to 2027. This perspective is detailed in the BMR’s latest flagship report, Consumer Market Outlook for 2025 to 2027, which presents an in-depth analysis of shifting consumer sentiment and purchasing behavior in light of prevailing economic challenges and policy dynamics.
Authored by Dr Requier Wait, the BMR’s chief researcher, the report sheds light on the expected trajectory of household consumption over the next three years. According to the study, South Africa is likely to experience moderate growth in real household spending, driven by improving wages and a gradual easing of inflation. However, this positive trend will be tempered by persistent headwinds—most notably, high levels of household debt and an increasing personal income tax burden.
Retail sales are projected to grow by 2% in real terms in 2025. Nonetheless, the pace of growth is expected to decelerate in the years that follow. Within the broader retail landscape, sectors such as textiles and household goods are expected to lead the recovery. In addition, the report underscores the growing importance of retail events like Black Friday, which continues to act as a major driver of consumer activity and retail performance.
“More than ever before, a nuanced understanding of the evolving consumer landscape is crucial,” stated Dr Wait. He explained that South African consumers are facing a complex and volatile environment, shaped by slow economic growth, global instability, and mounting financial pressures. This report, he added, aims to equip both business leaders and policymakers with the insights required to adapt and lead effectively amid such uncertainty.
The report draws on both domestic and international economic indicators, incorporating policy uncertainty indices, retail performance data, and macroeconomic trends to provide a holistic view of the consumer outlook. In doing so, it not only outlines likely trends in consumption but also highlights key areas where businesses and governments must adapt to remain competitive and responsive.
Emerging themes such as the integration of generative artificial intelligence (AI), a growing focus on environmental sustainability, and accelerating digital transformation are flagged as critical shifts that will shape consumer expectations and business practices. Dr Wait stresses the importance of “ambidextrous leadership,” referring to the dual capability of organizations to maintain operational excellence while pursuing innovation.
“Companies that can both leverage their existing capabilities and explore emerging frontiers—be it through AI, ESG strategies, or digital commerce—will be the ones that outperform the market despite external challenges,” Dr Wait commented. “Our goal is for this report to serve as a strategic compass for those steering decisions in this dynamic environment. Consumer behavior is not static; it mirrors and magnifies every policy shift, productivity trend, and societal perception.”
Adding to this, BMR’s CEO, Professor Deon Tustin, emphasized the report’s role in enabling informed and forward-thinking decisions. “This publication underscores our ongoing commitment to producing high-impact research that supports evidence-based decision-making,” Tustin said. “In an era defined by rapid change and economic volatility, having access to clear, data-driven foresight is essential for developing resilient business models and effective public policy responses.”
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https://trendsnafrica.com/south-africas-retail-sector-gains-momentum-as-consumer-sentiment-improves/
In conclusion, the BMR’s ‘Consumer Market Outlook for 2025 to 2027’ offers a roadmap for stakeholders aiming to navigate the intricate and fast-evolving consumer environment in South Africa. It calls for agility, strategic foresight, and a willingness to evolve alongside the needs and expectations of the modern South African consumer.
