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The recent announcement by US President Donald Trump regarding a 30% import tariff on goods from South Africa raises significant concerns. This tariff is substantially higher than the import taxes imposed by South Africa on US tech products, which are primarily duty-free. The move, part of Trump’s “Liberation Day” address, claims to address perceived unfair trade practices but is marred by questionable calculations and potential economic consequences.
Experts are skeptical about the methodology used to determine these tariffs, suggesting they are politically motivated rather than economically sound. The impact on South Africa’s key industries, including agriculture and mining, could be severe, leading to reduced exports, job cuts, and a loss of competitiveness in the US market.
Although the Trump administration labelled the tariffs “reciprocal,” analysts identified a major flaw in the import tariff data for other countries that the White House presented during the announcement. They found that these figures were not calculated using an actual average of tariffs imposed on US goods in those countries.
According to XA Global Trade Advistos CEO Donald MacKay, the average import tariff South Africa applied to US imports was closer to 7.5% and was the same for most other countries. The US government came up with the tariff by dividing its trade deficit with each country by the value of each country’s imports to the US.
In 2024, South Africa exported USD 14.5 billion of goods to the US, with the value of imports at USD 5.7 billion. Therefore, the US trade deficit with South Africa was USD 8.8 billion. Dividing the USD 8.8 billion by the South African imports to the US works out to the 60% tariff the US claimed South Africa levied on its goods, including currency manipulation and trade barriers. In most cases, the “discounted” reciprocal tariffs are half the calculated tariff, so South Africa’s tariff has been set at 30%.
This situation underscores the complexities of international trade and the far-reaching effects of tariff policies on both exporting and importing nations.
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For South Africa, the worst impact of the 30% US tariff will be on the two main industries that export goods to the US: agriculture and mining. The US government has already imposed a 25% blanket tariff on all vehicle imports, which will hurt BMW and Mercedes-Benz plants in South Africa. The higher tariffs will make products like citrus, cars, and diamonds from South Africa more expensive to US consumers, making them less competitive with local offerings, where available. With reduced demand for South African-produced goods, the facilities making, growing, or extracting them will need to downscale output. To manage costs, they will be forced to cut jobs. These industries previously benefitted from an average import tariff of 3.5% in the US.
