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Since its launch in 2000, AGOA has played a vital role in boosting U.S.–Africa trade by granting duty-free access to U.S. markets for a wide range of African exports, supporting jobs and industrial growth across nearly 30 countries. With the agreement set to expire in September 2025, there are growing concerns about economic fallout—ranging from job losses and factory closures to disrupted regional value chains and a potential shift in alliances toward China. However, this turning point also presents an opportunity to accelerate the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), enabling the continent to strengthen internal markets, deepen industrial capacity, and reduce reliance on external trade frameworks.
Since its establishment in 2000, AGOA has served as a foundational framework shaping U.S.–Africa trade relations. The agreement unlocked U.S. markets to thousands of goods —ranging from clothing and farm produce to vehicles— duty-free from nearly 30 African countries. This more than two-decade-old preferential access is set to lapse at the end of September 2025.
As the clock ticks toward the expiry of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), there is deep concern across the continent about its economic fallouts.
Experts warn of severe economic consequences, including widespread job losses, factory closures, investment drain, and a sharp fall in export earnings. According to a World Bank study, the withdrawal of AGOA may lead to a 65% drop in exports. Manufacturing facilities set up in countries like Kenya, Lesotho, and Madagascar to cater to the US markets risk closure, leaving thousands jobless.
For instance, Kenya’s apparel exports, which stood at $737.3 million in 2024, would be among the hardest hit. The sector may witness massive capital drain, wiping out tens of thousands of direct jobs. South Africa is another vulnerable economy that could face significant export and job losses in the automotive and Agri sectors, notably wine and citrus.
The program has also supported countries like Ghana and Nigeria in diversifying their export baskets beyond traditional commodities. While Ghana leveraged AGOA to expand into textiles, agro-products, and cocoa derivatives, Nigeria used it to go beyond oil into light manufacturing and agricultural exports. Namibia also benefited significantly from AGOA. It became the first African country to export beef to the U.S. In 2025, its beef exports to the US are projected to touch 5,000 tonnes from just 860 tonnes in 2020.
The impact of AGOA’s cessation will go beyond individual countries, reverberating at the regional level as well. One significant contribution of AGOA was fostering cross-border value chains that tied regional economies together. Its withdrawal would disrupt this progress, reversing gains made in building resilient value chains across Africa. In essence, halting AGOA would undermine Africa’s efforts toward industrialization, job creation, and inclusive economic growth.
The end of AGOA will have political and strategic implications, too. The loss of the US market will push Africa to seek alternative markets. China has positioned itself as an alternative partner by extending tariff-free entry to African exports, strengthening further its economic footprint on the continent. Given the economic constraints of Africa, Analysts predict that there is every possibility of Africa aligning more closely with China.
Some experts predict the possibility of AGOA being redrafted to focus on U.S.–Africa supply chain partnerships in critical minerals. This is in line with the current policy of the US toward Africa, focusing on commercial diplomacy, with critical minerals at the centre. Many of the AGOA beneficiary Countries in Africa, such as the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Madagascar, Malawi, Mauritania, Mozambique, Namibia, South Africa, Tanzania, and Zambia, are home to rich resources of critical minerals. According to some projections, they hold 70 percent of the world’s manganese, 89 percent of the world’s platinum group metals, 54 percent of cobalt, 23 percent of graphite, and 10 percent of copper. This critical mineral wealth underscores the scope for U.S.–Africa supply chain partnerships in critical minerals.
However, the highly mechanised Mining sector has a very limited scope to generate large-scale employment. Hence, such a partnership with the US may not be beneficial, given the continent’s rapidly growing population and the pressing need for job creation.
A silver lining to this darkening economic scenario is that this development is bound to accelerate the completion of the pending work for the implementation of AfCTA. Through our several columns, www.trendsnafrica has highlighted the potential of AfCTA as a tool to navigate Africa’s economic shocks. Rather than viewing the end of AGOA as a setback, AfCTA should be leveraged to boost intra-African trade. This will shift the centre of gravity. Instead of bowing to external pressures, it will enable Africa to build a robust, resilient economic bloc.
By harnessing Africa’s internal strength through AfCTA, deepening value chains, and collaborating to manufacture finished products rather than exporting raw materials, the continent can demonstrate its resilience. Sectors such as textiles, processed foods, and auto components—industries that thrived under AGOA—should be prioritized as key focus areas for growth and innovation.
Let us hope that the cessation of AGOA will once again prove Africa’s resilience. It can be a stepping stone for Africa to emerge with a new continental economic order, empowering it to collectively negotiate with global partners from a position of strength.