AfCFTA After Five Years: A Stocktaking

February 7, 2025

(3 Minutes Read)

Opinions differ on why AfCFTA did not catch up with expectations. The foremost opinion is its foundation is based on simplistic assumptions. The idea that liberalisation and tariff removal will automatically increase trade is flawed. Even when goods are produced, their transportation remains a major challenge because of intra-traffic bottlenecks

Signed on May 30, 2019, The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) agreement was signed on May 30, 2019. Five years have elapsed since then. It was intended to revolutionise trade across Africa by creating a unified market of 1.3 billion people and generating an additional US$450 billion in revenue by 2035.

However, five years later, implementation remains slow. Only 46 out of 55 countries have ratified the agreement, and eliminating tariffs on 90% of goods is not expected until 2034. Structural, logistical, and political challenges continue to hinder the growth of intra-African trade.

Another issue is the disparity in economic development among countries. For instance, Burundi and Chad are not in the same league as South Africa or Nigeria. Commitments to open up must be adapted to each country’s economic realities to prevent further deepening inequalities. Equally significant is AfCFTA’s implementation strategy. In 2018, member states agreed that no country should sign a free trade agreement with a third party before fully implementing the AfCFTA.

However, many countries prioritize trade with external powers such as the United Kingdom, the United States, and the United Arab Emirates. Intra-African trade also suffers from connectivity issues. Over 98% of maritime shipping lines serving Africa are owned by foreign companies. This necessitates greater investments by African companies in each other, which many feel is a pipedream at least for some time to come.

Experts feel that without solid infrastructure, a coherent trade policy, and strong government commitment, the AfCFTA risks remaining an unfulfilled promise rather than a true driver of Africa’s economic growth.