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The African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) which is set to expire in Sep 2025 has played a key role since 2000 in promoting duty-free exports to the US. Experts caution that Trump’s skepticism toward multilateral agreements could impact the future of AGOA.
Trump’s re-election has sparked apprehensions across Africa about what is in store for the continent.? Judging by his approach and derogatory statements against Africa in his first term, these apprehensions are not misplaced.
Political Pundits predict five paramount impacts for Africa – tighter trade and investment policies, foreign aid cuts, leaner security support against terrorism, and restrictive immigration policies.
“America First” has been central to his election campaign. This invariably indicates tighter trade and investment policies which will have far-reaching impacts on Africa. His return to the White House jeopardises the future of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) which is set to expire in Sep 2025. AGOA has played a key role since 2000 in promoting duty-free exports of eligible African countries to the US. With his strong dislike of multilateral agreements, he may either discontinue or renegotiate AGOA for more reciprocal deals, warn experts. African countries like South Africa, which had benefited from AGOA may be hit if discontinued.
Concerns also abound that Trump might roll back US investments in Africa. In 2018 the Trump administration unveiled Prosper Africa – an initiative that assists US companies wanting to invest in Africa – and the Development Finance Corporation (DFC), which funds development projects in Africa and around the world. According to DFC, it has so far invested more than USD 10bn (£8bn) in Africa. All this may undergo review and reassessment.
Most of the aid to Africa comes from the US. In December 2022, Biden’s administration pledged USD 55 bn over three years to African nations. The US donation to Africa this financial year touched almost USD 3.7bn. The US foreign aid policy is likely to undergo tremendous change, by re-aligning it with strategic US interests. Funding for programs that do not directly benefit America may face elimination. Current US aid to Africa, of $8 billion annually, could face significant cuts. Health programs like PEPFAR, which has been vital in the fight against HIV/AIDS in Africa, and others like vaccine distribution and reproductive health also may face the axe.
US security assistance to Africa may also face a setback as Trump may overlook Africa’s fragile security situation. Eastern African countries, home to the worst displacement crisis are among the biggest recipients of American security assistance. Issues like Sudan’s civil war or the rise of jihadist groups in West Africa may be viewed as local or UN problems, rather than requiring US intervention.
Trump’s focus, experts caution, could be on how Africa fits within his broader geopolitical objectives, especially concerning his rivalry with China. Critics expect Trump to put pressure on African nations that have benefited from Chinese investments to distance themselves from Beijing.
Trump’s climate scepticism poses another major threat. During his first term, he withdrew the US from the Paris Climate Agreement. Experts fear that it may be repeated, limiting Africa’s access to international climate funding. This would be disastrous for the continent, which is the least contributor to emissions, but the worst sufferer of climate change. His apathy to climate issues would leave Africa more vulnerable to environmental crises like droughts, food insecurity, and water scarcity.
Trump’s anti-immigration rhetoric poses a massive challenge to African migrants seeking asylum in the US from war and poverty. In his 2024 campaign, Trump vowed to deport millions of undocumented immigrants. According to US Customs and Border Protection data, African migrants in the US in 2023, were estimated around 58,000. During his last tenure, he curbed immigration from several African countries, including Nigeria, Eritrea, Sudan, and Tanzania.
Trump’s re-election could also have other geopolitical consequences for Africa. The Biden administration had supported Africa’s claim for permanent seats on the Security Council. However, Trump’s disdain for multilateral institutions could brush aside Africa’s aspirations for a better representation in international organizations.
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Given this backdrop, analysts predict that Trump’s re-election will usher in a paradigm shift in Africa’s global alliances. The diminishing scope for the Africa-US partnership may drive Africa to seek alternative alliances. This shift could lead to stronger intra-continental trade and alliances with emerging powers in the Middle East and Asia.
A clearer picture of the economic, political, and geopolitical consequences of Trump’s re-election will emerge only after his foreign policy unfolds in the coming days. Whether it will be catastrophic or serve as a catalyst for the continent leading to new economic and geopolitical alliances, beyond traditional Western alliances, only time will tell.
