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Morocco is poised for a steady economic rebound, with growth expected to reach 2.8% this year and 3.6% in 2025, according to new projections by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The Moroccan economy is projected to grow at a modest 3.4% by 2029, with inflation expected to stabilize around 2.0% over the same period.
The IMF’s forecast suggests a period of gradual recovery for the North African nation, with inflation anticipated to decline to 1.7% in 2024 before rising slightly to 2.3% the following year. These projections, presented during the IMF and World Bank’s annual meetings in Washington, offer a cautiously optimistic outlook for Morocco.
The country’s unemployment rate, which stands at 13.4% this year, is expected to dip to 12.6% by 2025. Meanwhile, Morocco’s current account balance is forecasted to be -2.0% in 2024 and -2.3% the year after, indicating ongoing external trade and financial challenges. The country’s economy is projected to grow at a modest 3.4% by 2029, with inflation expected to stabilize around 2.0% over the same period.
In the broader Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, the IMF foresees economic growth of 2.1% in 2024, with a notable rise to 4.0% in 2025, driven by easing inflation rates. Morocco’s recent economic trajectory has been shaped by a series of shocks. A severe drought as well as a global slowdown, compounded by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, saw Morocco’s GDP growth drop dramatically from 8% in 2021 to just 1.3% in 2022.
However, in 2023 there was a partial recovery, with a resurgence in key sectors such as agriculture, tourism, and net exports contributing to a GDP growth rate of 3% in the first half of the year.The tourism sector, a key driver of Morocco’s economy, has shown resilience despite the September 2023 Al Haouz earthquake, with most destinations returning to normal operations. Revenues reached USD 3.2 billion in the first four months of 2024, a 10.6% increase compared to the same period in 2023, driven by an increase in tourist arrivals.
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Morocco’s economic outlook remains intertwined with its ambitious reform agenda. The creation of the Mohammed VI Investment Fund and the adoption of a new investment charter signal a pivot toward private sector-led growth.
