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The tone and tenor of the summit were focused more on geopolitics and seemingly less on the development agenda. Analysts feel that the Forum should have addressed climate change, debt repayment, unemployment, agricultural development, AfCFTA, and the development of industry, manufacturing, and services sectors in more details…
The recently concluded Forum on China – Africa Cooperation Summit (FOCAC) which brought together representatives from 53 countries including heads of state and top officials of multilateral lending bodies was significant in many ways. It reaffirmed the existence of a bipolar world, where the US along with other Western countries form one axis and China with the overt or covert support of mainly third-world countries including Russia constitute the other. Both are in a mood to woe countries to their side reminding one of the Cold War days, when the erstwhile Soviet Union and the US tried to push their hegemony.
Close on the heels of the Beijing Declaration, which listed a string of initiatives including over USD 50 Billion in financial support to the African countries to be spent in the next two to three years, the US as if responding to the generosity of the Chinese, has come out with a promise of two additional seats in the UN security council for the African countries, while remaining muted regarding their demand for veto power. Subsequently, Washinton ruled out extending veto power to Africans. Amidst this turf war between the two blocs, it is expected that such “sweeteners” will be doled out by either side. Could we say, come whatever may, Africa is the beneficiary in that one-up-man-show game?
www.trendsnafrica.com and our allied platform, Africa4U, tried to assess the real situation on the ground after scoring through multitudes of reports, surveys, and other insightful analyses brought to the fore by various agencies, independent bodies, multilateral organizations, and individuals who keep a close watch on “China vs US and Europe” developments in Africa. Interestingly, the seminal reports and publications that we have scrutinized to arrive at a realistic standpoint as to which bloc gained the ground in deepening the economic cooperation with Africa, had shown a blurred trend, with no one can claim an advantage over the other. Does it mean the game is still wide open?
Interestingly, there is an overwhelming opinion that the Chinese are imitating the West to let loose rhetoric and media blitz to cover up the limited takeaways from the summit. This time around, at least a few experts feel that China tried to generate massive media attention for the summit. It did grab the media headlines, before, during, and post-event globally in all available media. These developments are taking place when China is facing one of its worst economic trajectories. The real estate sector is at a standstill. It is also reported that Chinese banks and financial institutions are cagey about lending. Some of the high-budget infra projects being implemented by the Chinese in African countries, and in the domestic sector it is reported, are facing inordinate delays. Yet, it goes to the credit of China and its overwhelming global dominance, a larger number of countries are still betting on China as their saviour and benefactor.
Be that it may, it is also a fact that the US and Western partners have not made any breakthroughs to replace Chinese investors, where they found wanting. Not many Western corporations have shown interest, as of now, in the infra and port sectors, where Chinese presence is still overwhelming and may continue despite its not-so-impressive financial bottom lines. Many are openly asking whether the West is interested in entering such areas, where there is a considerable gestation period, complexity in operations, and high risk. Such investments need a constant interface with the administrations at all levels. That may pose problems for corporations headquartered in Western countries due to the mandatory disclosures for complying with their corporate laws.
Minerals, metals, and hydrocarbons are the key attractions for foreign investors in Africa. Mineral-rich countries like the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Angola, Nigeria, Morocco, Algeria, etc are being scouted by investors from both sides-West and China. These countries especially the DRC have huge deposits of rare earths like lithium, cobalt, silicon, etc that go into the manufacture of batteries and other parts needed for electronic goods. As the hardware revolution is taking place at a higher pace than expected, the future growth of these industries depends on creating a steady supply chain, which starts from the mining pits. Here, because of its overwhelming presence in the mining sector, China seems to have an advantage. Also, many believe that the proximity of Russia and China to the countries in the Sahel region and their consistent stand to re-auction the mineral contracts with fresh terms and conditions may go against the interest of the Western bloc if the host countries are serious about what they talk.
Representation at the Beijing Summit was mostly from the Sub-Saharan countries. North Africa’s presence was there but not to the expected extent. Those countries are mostly aligned with the Middle East and the Western bloc because of their geographical proximity. It is also a fact that there is an apparent conflict of interest between Sub-Saharan Africa and Northern Africa stemming from the migrant issues. The West is closely cooperating with the North African countries in preventing illegal immigration, by offering them liberal developmental assistance to address climate issues. That will also help the West to meet their green energy needs. The allegiance of North African countries may continue to be more with the West, although may keep the Chinese in good humour.
The tone and tenor of the summit were focused more on geopolitics and seemingly less on the development agenda. Analysts feel that the Forum should have addressed climate change, debt repayment, unemployment, agricultural development, AfCFTA, and the development of industry, manufacturing, and services sectors. The mere mention of these urgent needs in the Beijing Declaration and cosmetic concessions to the least developed countries in the continent, defy the expectations of the Africans and possibly the African leaders.
