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On 28 August, South Africa’s Crop Estimates Committee lowered the 2023-24 maize production estimate by 2% from July to 13.06 million tonnes. This current harvest is 21% down from the 2022-23 season. This sharp decline in harvest prospects signifies the harsh effect of the mid-summer drought
Current estimates of South Africa’s maize production could be further slashed for the 2023-24 season as the country struggled with the drought in February and March. There is always a risk of potential downward revision of the production figures as more data about the actual harvest delivered to silos becomes available.
On 28 August, South Africa’s Crop Estimates Committee lowered the 2023-24 maize production estimate by 2% from July to 13.06 million tonnes. This current harvest is 21% down from the 2022-23 season. This sharp decline in harvest prospects signifies the harsh effect of the mid-summer drought. Of the current estimate, white maize is about 6.19 million tonnes (down 3% month-on-month), with yellow maize at 6.87 million tonnes (down 2% month-on-month).
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This expected harvest will meet South Africa’s annual maize consumption of roughly 12 million tonnes, leaving the country with a sizable volume for export markets. The South African Grains and Oilseed Supply and Demand Estimates Committee suggests that exports could reach 1.85 million tonnes in the 2024-25 marketing year (this corresponds with the 2023-24 production season). This may sound significant following a difficult season with a somewhat poor harvest, but there is a boost in supplies from the carryover stocks from the previous season.
In this export forecast, about 1.2 million tonnes will likely be white maize, with 650,000 tonnes could be yellow maize. Still, the estimated exports of 1.85 million tonnes are down notably from 3.40 million tonnes in the previous 2023-24 marketing year (this corresponds with the last 2022-23 production season). These exports will primarily be for the Southern Africa region.
Also worth noting is that while South Africa will probably remain the net exporter of maize in the 2024-25 marketing year (which corresponds with the 2023-24 production season), the coastal regions will import small volumes of yellow maize for animal feed because of price advantage.
