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Two important economic reports recently released suggest that Morocco’s economy is poised for stronger growth in 2025 after a moderate slowdown expected in 2024. Both the Moroccan High Commission for Planning (HCP) and the World Bank project an acceleration of economic activity, though their forecasts differ slightly in magnitude.
The HCP’s latest exploratory budget report anticipates GDP growth of 3.7% in 2025, up from 3% projected for 2024. This rebound is primarily attributed to an expected recovery in the agricultural sector, with agricultural value-added forecast to grow by 8.5% in 2025 after a 4.6% contraction in 2024. Assuming that cereal production returns to normal levels in the subsequent years, it is projected that economic growth will pick up to 4 percent in 2025, states the World Bank in its latest Morocco Economic Monitor.
Both institutions highlight the continued strong performance of non-agricultural sectors. The HCP projects non-agricultural GDP growth of 3.2% in 2025, while the World Bank forecasts 3.6% growth for these sectors. The reports also point to an expected improvement in domestic demand. The HCP predicts private consumption will grow by 2.6% in 2025, with the World Bank projecting a more optimistic 4.2% increase.
On the fiscal front, both reports anticipate a gradual reduction of the budget deficit. The HCP and the World Bank agree, both forecasting a budget deficit of 3.8% of GDP in 2025. However, challenges remain. The World Bank report notes, Morocco’s labour market could remain under significant stress, particularly in rural areas. It also highlights potential fiscal risks associated with innovative financing operations and the ongoing health insurance system reform.
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Both reports underscore the importance of constraints facing the private sector to boost productivity and job creation. The World Bank’s analysis suggests that overcoming the bottlenecks that explain the productivity dynamics of the formal private sector is critical to accelerate economic growth and job creation in Morocco.
While their projections offer a generally positive outlook for 2025, both institutions emphasize the need for continued reforms and vigilance in addressing economic challenges to sustain and enhance growth prospects.
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