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- Deadline for formation of a Coalition Government is Feb 22nd.
- The key challenge is the disagreement about the number of states in South Sudan.
  South Sudan is just two days away, from its deadline for the formation of a Coalition Government which is Feb 22nd. The disagreements between President Salva Kiir led state forces and vice-president Riek Machar led Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-In-Opposition (SPLM-IO) are galore. The key challenge is the disagreement about the number of states in South Sudan.
In 2011, when Sudan gained independence, it was divided into ten administrative states. However, in 2014, a year into the civil war, across the state, there was a demand for greater federalisation. Reading the political mood, the SPLM-IO called for the formation of 21 states. In October 2015, President Kiir issued a unilateral decision clearly violating the August 2015 peace agreement signed just two months previously. The order divided the country into 28 states, which was later expanded to 32 states.
The division of South Sudan into 32 has had several repercussions. These included political contests over the location, ownership and control of the new states’ administrative centres, bloated payroll, soaring government expenditures for a country under severe economic stress etc. Under international pressure, Machar reluctantly re-joined the government in April 2016 as vice-president. Nevertheless, just three months later, he fled the capital Juba following a shootout between his and Kiir’s bodyguards.
 In September 2018, another power-sharing peace agreement was signed and  Machar agreed to join a coalition government on the condition that South Sudan revert to ten states or get modified to his proposal of 21 states. On 14 February President Kiir made the surprise announcement that he would accept South Sudan returning to ten states. But he proposed status of administrative areas to Abyei, Ruweng and Pibor. Though the opposition welcomed Kiir’s compromise, it rejected the idea of giving individual status to additional areas which they felt was President’s reward for Ruweng for its support during war.
The fundamental issue behind South Sudan’s civil war is the power struggle between Dinka and Nuer, the two predominant tribes of south Sudan. Kiir is Dinka and Machar is Nuer. The indications are that the SPLM-IO will agree to join a coalition government in time for the deadline, but continue to oppose the idea of giving special status to the three areas from within. As regional and international pressure mounts on Kiir and Machar to come to a compromise and meet the upcoming deadline, it will be a long and difficult journey for the rivals and the coalition.
