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South Africa’s ruling African National Congress party looks set to lose its majority for the first time since it swept to power at the end of apartheid, in a watershed moment for the country, as support for the former liberation movement collapsed below 50% in partial results. The early election count puts the African National Congress on 42% of the vote, compared with 57% in the final tally in 2019
With 31.1% of votes counted by early evening on Thursday, South Africa was on the precipice of an era of national coalition government. The ANC had 42.3% of the vote, with the pro-business Democratic Alliance on 25% and the Marxist-inspired Economic Freedom Fighters on 9%.
Not far behind the EFF, at 8.8%, was the uMkhonto we Sizwe (MK) party, launched in December by Jacob Zuma, who was forced to resign as president of South Africa in 2018 amid corruption allegations. Since then, he has waged a bitter feud with the current president, Cyril Ramaphosa, and his new party has upended the elections, even while Zuma himself was barred from running elections due to a 2021 prison sentence for contempt of court.
If the final results of Wednesday’s election are similar to early results, it would be a stunning blow for the ANC, which has led South Africa since it won the country’s first fully democratic elections under Nelson Mandela in 1994. While the hollowing out of many state institutions during Zuma’s presidency from 2009 to 2018 ate away at the ANC’s support, it was still able to secure 57.5% of the vote in the 2019 national elections.
The nation’s mood has worsened amid rising unemployment, water shortages, and power cuts that have lasted up to 10 hours a day, and it may be this that finally costs the ruling party its majority. The ANC is not going to make its way up to 50% and no one else will either … but the ANC remains the largest party. This is their Rubicon moment and they have to show us who they are. If the ANC gets above 45% of votes, it can seek a coalition with parties that secured around 1%, Everatt said, while if it stays at around 43% it would probably seek one large partner.
There are different factions within the ANC and they all want to have power, but the more populist ones would look immediately to the EFF as their natural ally and partner. The Ramaphosa … faction would hold their noses but possibly look at the DA.” Ramaphosa’s presidency would be on the line if the ANC’s vote share fell that low, he said.
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Sy Mamabolo, the chief executive of the Independent Electoral Commission, said in a Thursday afternoon media briefing that the vote-counting process had been slowed down due to a new third ballot paper, but that they would try to announce results before the legally mandated seven days. In 2019 the final results were announced on the Saturday after the Wednesday vote.
