December 16-31, 2018
The year 2018 was a remarkable year for Africa-the resource rich vibrant yet diverse continent of 54 countries of one billion people. Indeed, 2018 has had its good, bad and even ugly undertones to the continent, which is often referred as the next century’s most happening place. First the goodies! The launch of the Africa Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), formed at Kigali in March 2018 is undoubtedly historic since it aims to transform Africa into a borderless Business zone. It also augurs well that 49 countries have signed up the pact. The flip side is that, as on December 2018, the agreement lacks more ratifications to become operational in 2019. That perhaps is the biggest challenge. Let us hope for the best, even while the two largest economies in Africa –South Africa and Nigeria-have developed cold feet over the agreement.
Most of the oil economies in the continent faced volatility because of the sluggishness of the oil prices. Many expected that with the sanctions on Iran in full force, oil prices may firm up. But the US and its close allies in the Gulf region-Saudi Arabia and Kuwait- thought otherwise. Their adamant stand to stick to dictum of the US not to cut back the production coupled with the US pushing ahead with its agenda to boost the supply-side of oil, has pulled down the oil prices to below US$ 54 mark per barrel, and is now threatening to go below US$ 50 per barrel. Will that change in 2019? If it does, the oil producing countries in Africa will thrive. Otherwise, the mist of economic uncertainty will engulf them casting long shadows.
Happily, green shoots of peace and harmony permeated across 2018. The scale and range of civil wars have come down considerably during 2018, be they skirmishes among the neighbors or ethnic rivalries. Peace was brokered in Horn of Africa consisting of Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, and Somalia. If such truce gain momentum, and signatories walk the talk, the year 2019 can build on the breakthroughs that have taken place. Let not such historic agreements that can put the continent into the vortex of economic development be mere piece of papers or signatures stamped without understanding the nuances of peace and harmony. Let that solemn promises take concrete shape to inch towards an incredible Africa and let 2019 vet such aspirations.
Africa has many wish lists. A few of them are achievable in the short run and another set may take time. Mainstreaming agriculture, tourism, small and medium enterprises, processing of raw materials including agricultural produces etc are key to development for generating millions of employment and importantly for facilitating intra-trade and investment. If that goes in full throttle across Africa, it will herald development which is the best antidote to insurgency and disruptive tendencies. Yet, a shining Africa needs trillions of dollars’ worth investments in infrastructure, developing ports, railways, road transport, aviation, manufacturing and the list goes on. Let the political administrations do justice to create an environ conductive for investments. That is also the challenge to be addressed in the New Year.
