African peace mission to Ukraine and Russia
An interesting development last fortnight that captured global attention was the proposed peace Mission of six African leaders to Ukraine and Russia next month. South African president, Cyril Ramaphosa, announced last week that Russian President Vladimir Putin and the Ukrainian leader Zelenskyy have agreed to receive the African peace mission in their respective capitals. The initiative by Zambia, Senegal, the Republic of Congo, Uganda, Egypt, and South Africa was welcomed by the EU, United Nations, AU, US, and China.
Third-party mediation has a critical role in de-escalating and resolving conflicts across the world. It plays a vital role by creating a buffer between contenders, promoting constructive dialogue, and offering aggressors a face-saving exit. However, what is paramount is the acceptability and credibility of an impartial third party as a mediator.
Since the early days of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, mediation efforts have been taking place. Many global leaders including, China, Turkey, Israel, and France vied with each other to act as mediators. But neither Russia nor Ukraine was ready to budge on the pre-conditions, they set for the peace talks to begin. Ukraine demands that Russian troops must withdraw from its territory before any peace talks start while Moscow wants Kyiv to recognise Russian sovereignty over Crimea, which it annexed in 2014.
The moot question is how far Africa can play the role of a neutral third-party mediator in this peace negotiation.
Historically, Africa has maintained neutrality even from the cold war days and continues to do so. Most African countries have abstained from voting at the UN resolution on the Russia-Ukraine war. This position of neutrality has encouraged both Russia and Ukraine to reach out to Africa opening a communication channel which in turn makes it easier to open a diplomatic route for brokering peace.
Africa and the rest of the World desperately need the war to end. The continent has been the hardest hit, battered by rising food insecurity, hunger, and energy crisis. If the war continues, the huge economic impact of the war on Africa will worsen. The fragile economies of Africa cannot take any more pressure and may collapse. Therefore, the end of the Ukraine-Russia war is in the interest of Africa as well as the rest of the world.
While striving towards the cessation of hostilities and, developing a framework for lasting peace, Africa will also try to seek solutions for the specific economic challenges posed by the war.
Grain and fertilisers are likely to be the central themes during the negotiations. War has restricted the supply of grain from Ukraine and fertilizers from Russia, intensifying food insecurity and hunger. Facilitating more grain shipments out of Ukraine amid the war, paying a heavily sanctioned Russia for fertilisers are crucial issues to be urgently addressed. Recently, after several rounds of negotiations, led by Turkey and the UN, Russia agreed to extend the deal for two months allowing Ukraine to ship grain through the Black Sea. Africa needs the deal to be further extended.
Similarly, receiving fertiliser shipments from Russia and paying for them is equally challenging for Africa. Although Russian fertilizer is currently not under international sanctions, the U.S. and some Western nations are increasingly targeting it to be brought under sanctions. Russia’s restricted access to the SWIFT global financial transaction has left African nations struggling to order and pay for critical fertilizers. If the African delegation manages to open a window whereby SWIFT will be authorized for this specific point, support from Russia can be won for hassle-free shipment of grains from Ukraine.
To expect a cease-fire of the 15-month-old conflict from the first mission from Africa will be a fantasy. Yet, the peace Mission of African leaders to Russia and Ukraine is sure to set a different pitch, a new beginning to a peace dialogue between Russia and Ukraine.
The point is Russia and Ukraine have agreed to receive the African leader’s delegation to talk about peace in itself is a major achievement. It reveals the trust and confidence they have in the African negotiators, unlike the mistrust that other global mediators evoke in the warring parties.
