February 24 marked the sombre reminder of one year of Russian aggression on Ukraine. Though far away from the war zone, the economic repercussions of the war rattled the continent pushing it further into poverty and hunger. While Africa continues to bear the brunt, including rising food and fuel costs, and shrinking aid, it has also presented Africa with some opportunities. Indeed, Africa is bracing up to face the challenge.
Let us reflect on the predominant aftereffects of the Ukraine war on Africa. These primarily include fuel, food, and fertiliser shortages. Ironically, Africa has untapped potential in all these. The challenge is how to strategically position themselves and benefit.
The 2022 World Economic Outlook presented a grim picture of the state of the global energy crisis with deep and long-term implications. Amidst the tectonic shifts in the international energy scenario, global players who are grappling with energy supply disruptions are eyeing Africa as a source of energy. The global energy crisis has also triggered policy reversals, recasting the role of natural gas and other fossil fuels. Many countries are now pursuing projects in these sectors to meet their energy needs. Over and above, natural gas is increasingly viewed as a “green investment”, a departure from the COP26 global climate talks in Glasgow in November 2021 that called for curtailing development financing for natural gas projects. For Africa, this has meant a renewed interest and fast-tracking of natural gas and liquified natural gas (LNG) projects, but mainly for export to Europe.
While this may spell more global investments in the energy sector on the continent, Africa must ensure that it improves access for Africans and fuels local industrialization first. If not, it will face the risk of perpetuating another cycle of commodity-based economies. Invariably the solution lies with Africa for having a balanced energy mix.
Ukraine war also pushed Africa deeper into food insecurity. Though Africa has over 65 percent of the world’s uncultivated land, it is a net importer of food. According to published data, in 2020, 15 African countries imported over 50 per cent of their wheat products from the Russian Federation or Ukraine. The unprecedented rise in global food prices and supply disruptions increased Africa’s food insecurity. Africans now represent one-third (about 300 million people) of the global population that is currently facing hunger and food insecurity.
It is interesting to see Africa taking some bold steps to counter the long-term impacts of the conflict. The most strategic one is the political will of African governments to refocus on agriculture and build a self-sufficient and resilient African food system. At the Dakar 2 Summit, many African Heads of State and Government called for higher public spending on agriculture. In his opening remarks at the summit, the President of Senegal and past Chairperson of the African Union Macky Sall said, “we need full food sovereignty, and we must increase land under cultivation and market access to enhance cross-border trade.”
Low fertiliser usage hampers Africa’s food production. The average fertilizer application rate of 22 kilograms per hectare, is seven-fold lower than the world average. According to the World Bank, during the 2023-2024 growing season, the price and availability of fertilizers for farmers in Africa will determine how the continent will counter widespread food insecurity. Africa produces approximately 30 metric tonnes of fertiliser annually. Prompt and efficient implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) can facilitate the seamless movement of fertilisers across borders.
Similarly, the AfDB’s plans to invest $ 10 billion “to make Africa the world’s breadbasket” can be a game changer. Such an investment can be led by the introduction of modern technological solutions. Ethiopia’s use of heat-resistant crops to boost its wheat output is a welcome step in this direction. Climate-resilient technologies present major solutions for the Continent to increase food production and productivity.
Affirmative action by Africa indicates that with decisive leadership and collective efforts, a resilient Africa can emerge, capable of developing strategies to ease the burden of food and fuel crises. What is important is, the continent should remember the lessons learned from the past and keep at bay commodity-based exploitation of the continent.
