Conflict, climate crisis, COVID-19 and surging food and fuel costs due to the Russian Invasion of Ukraine have created a perfect storm for Africa at large and countries in Horn of Africa in particular.
Reports are pouring in about the Horn of Africa facing the fourth consecutive drought, an unprecedented climate emergency threatening huge loss to life and livelihoods. Weather shocks – drought, poor rainfall, flooding and cyclones – contributed to crises in East, Central and Southern Africa in 2021. The recently released Global Report on Food Crises 2022 reveals that more than 15 million people face severe food insecurity in Ethiopia, Kenya, southern Madagascar, South Sudan and Somalia. Of the ten food crisis ountries/territories identified by GRFC, half are in Africa including the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, northern Nigeria, the Sudan and South Sudan. The rain deficits in October-December 2020, March-May 2021 and October-December 2021 and now March- May 2022 has left large swathes of Somalia, southern and south-eastern Ethiopia, and northern and eastern Kenya in exceptional drought conditions. These drought-affected communities were already battered by other shocks, including conflicts, flooding, desert locusts and COVID-19. Ethiopia and Somalia have been already affected by conflicts. The extreme rains and flooding which struck the region in 2019, led to the desert locust outbreak.
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Households were still struggling to recover from the loss inflicted by the COVID-19 pandemic when the Ukraine war broke out deteriorating macroeconomic conditions and creating trade and supply disruptions of food, fertilisers and oil.
The cumulative effect of all these developments is stoking inflation in many African countries at various degrees. For example, for Sudan, the projected inflation rate is a whopping 245% while for Zimbabwe, it is 88%.Similarly for Ethiopia it is around 34%, Angola 24%, Sierra Leone, 17% and Ghana and Nigeria 16%. In Ethiopia, the cost of a food basket has already surged by 66 per cent and by 36 per cent in Somalia. While most of the countries in the region are facing sharp rise in staple food prices, some cases stand out. Liberia, Sierra Leone, Nigeria, Burkina Faso, Togo, Niger, Mali and Mauritania have witnessed a staggering 40 percent leap from the 5-year average – pushing basic meals out of reach for millions of people.
The drought conditions and water scarcity are posing education disruption and health and hygiene problems too. An estimated six million children under five are likely to suffer from acute malnutrition in 2022 in countries such as Burkina Faso, Mali, Mauritania, Niger and Chad. The GRFC report presents a grim outlook for 2022. Severe food insecurity is expected to continue at similar trends of 2021 or worsen. Crisis is expected to worsen in northern Nigeria, Burkina Faso and the Niger due to conflict, and in Kenya, South Sudan and Somalia, due to the impact of consecutive seasons of below-average rains.
Bold and urgent action is needed to avert a widespread collapse of the economies, livelihoods, starvation and death. IMF has recommended governments to frame apt policy responses to address these crucial challenges. Avoiding further debt vulnerabilities, using direct transfers to protect the most vulnerable households, improving access to finance for farmers and small businesses, lifting barriers to regional trade are among its recommendations.
The irony is that Africa, despite having the largest untapped potential of arable land, mostly depend on food imports. Scientists and think tanks have opined that the root causes of food insecurity in the sub-region should be addressed by evolving food and agricultural systems, focussing on local agriculture and consumption of local food products. Long-term strategy on agriculture, including investments in developing agriculture, livestock and fisheries is needed to achieve food security for Africa say the experts. In short, an integrated approach to prevent, anticipate and mananage the crisis is the key.
