At 45, Mr. Abiy was viewed as one among the bright, dynamic and youngest leaders in Africa, igniting hopes for a transformational shift in Ethiopia. His modern and liberal approach of freeing thousands of political prisoners, relaxing a repressive security law and helping to mediate conflicts abroad projected the image of a visionary leader. As the Nobel Peace Prize winner, the Ethiopian leader’s international profile soared high. But the image of Mr Abiy since the Tigray crisis took a turn for the worse. The western media opines that his image as a torchbearer of peace has been irreparably damaged. Of course, there are contrarian views also.
The conflict that broke out on November 4, 2020 between Ethiopian Federal government forces against Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) forces and its loyalists has completed one year of violent clashes. The conflict started when Prime Minister Abiy ordered a military offensive against rebel forces in the northern region of Tigray in November last year. Months of discord between the Abiy government and political leaders in Tigray about the reforms pursued by the Federal government climaxed in the violent outburst. A year on, from a domestic political crisis initially termed as “law enforcement operation” against the TPLF, it precipitated into “an existential war”, as Prime Minister Abiy described it.
Ethiopian crisis is a archetypal example of an African country where competing ethnic rivalries have remained alive despite efforts to forge national unity. Both the African Union, and the UN Security Council have raised serious concerns about the impact of the war on the stability of Ethiopia as well as the region. Similar concerns poured in from all corners of the globe as reports came in about the advancing march of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) to Addis Ababa. Diplomatic Missions scrambled to close their missions and evacuate their staff from Addis Ababa.
The Anniversary of the conflict has come with a sense of foreboding for its neighbours and other members in the region. Regional leaders are worried that the escalating violence with an uncompromising attitude of leaderships from both the sides in no mood to give in an inch could signal a dangerous course for the country as well as the region. The prolonged conflict has brought Tigray to the brink of famine, deepening the possibility of Ethiopia, Africa’s second-most populous country, descending into a much broader civil war.
Only a robust regional and international pressure can bring the warring parties to the negotiating table. It is in the interest of Ethiopia and the larger interest of the continent that with the support of the AU and UN, a peace plan is quickly cobbled up. A coordinated and effective response at local, regional and international levels are critical to address the challenges in the region.The latest news that Ethiopia has offered conditions for possible talks after days of diplomatic efforts by international envoys offers a glimmer of hope for a dialogue between the warring factions.
If not arrested without further delay, the deteriorating situation in Ethiopia can have far reaching consequences for Africa. Coming close on the heels of a spate of military coups in West Africa (Sudan, Mali, Guinea, and Chad), the Ethiopian crisis has once again put Africa on the centre stage for the wrong reasons. The continent’s image as an emerging destination for business, economic development or democratic progress is at stake. A few years ago the media started visualising “Africa Rising”. But recent widespread political conflicts may force the international community to change that perception. Admittedly, the worst sufferers in the bargain are the common people of the continent, who want to unshackle from the past to enjoy a new wave of freedom and eager to join the mainstream.
