· Though the Nigerian economy has started showing green shoots of growth, after the COVID shock, the economic decline of Nigeria is pulling down the rest of sub-Saharan Africa according to the World Bank.
· In its recently released six-monthly update on development Nigeria, the World Bank projected a 1.9% GDP growth forecast for Nigeria in 2021 and 2.1% in 2022.
Though the Nigerian economy has started showing green shoots of growth, after the COVID shock, the economic decline of Nigeria is pulling down the rest of sub-Saharan Africa according to the World Bank. Food inflation, rising insecurity and stalled reforms are the major factors for slowing growth and increasing poverty.
In its recently released six-monthly update on Nigeria, the World Bank projected a 1.9% GDP growth forecast for Nigeria in 2021 and 2.1% in 2022. For sub-Saharan Africa, it projected a growth of 3.4% this year and 4.0% next year. The World Bank has forecasted an inflation rate of 16.5% in 2021 for Nigeria. The projection for sub-Saharan Africa, excluding Nigeria is around 5.9%.
According to economists, inflation, food inflation accounted for almost 70% of Nigeria’s total increase in inflation over the past year, aggravating poverty. COVID- crisis is expected to push over 11 million Nigerians into poverty by 2022, taking the below the poverty line population to over 100 million out of its estimated population of 200 million.
The country is also facing heightened insecurity including mass abductions at schools, kidnappings for ransom, armed conflict between herdsmen and farmers, armed robberies and various insurgencies affecting economic growth and job creation. The economic uncertainties are further complicated by stalled critical economic reforms such as electricity tariff reform. According to reports, only 22% of the poorest households in Nigeria have access to electricity.
