The second edition of the Russia-Africa Forum has taken place at a cataclysmic juncture. Foremost is the suspension of the Black Sea Grain initiative unilaterally by Russia, a truce which was brokered by the UN and Turkey to ensure grain supply to countries, mostly from the African region, to supplement their grossly inadequate focus on food security, days prior to the meet. Secondly, the reported Wagner rebellion, a private army of Russia, which masquerades as trainers but openly indulges in alleged covert activities, sent a sort of uncomforting signals to those countries, particularly in the Sahel region, which are trying to distance themselves from the ex-colonizers, who ruled the roost in the fragile region. Thirdly, all these developments are taking place when the Russia-Ukraine war continues unabated with its accompanying destructive trail for both warring groups, but so far more pronounced in Ukraine.
The situation, as analysts point out, can take a curious turn at any time, since it is a war of proxy between the West (read NATO) and somewhat isolated Russia, except for a vague supportive mantle from mighty China. As uncertainty is continuing and is likely to be so for some time at least, analysts are speculating what would be the end results. Can Russia withstand the onslaught from all sides? Can it (Russia) keep the momentum in the war of attrition, drawing from its limited resources against the massive protection extended to Ukraine by NATO, at a time, there is visible war fatigue evident there? International diplomacy always works on a treacherous path. Those who have the unfathomable capacity to pay can marshal support. History is replete with examples of such ilk. Will Russia be able to upstage the West in the game that they have mastered over the years through overt and covert operations? Vladimir Putin would have had the last laugh if he could have managed the presence of a large number of heads of state. Depletion in the number of their attendance should be a matter of worry for Moscow since the number had come down to a paltry 17 as against an impressive number in the first edition of the forum. Does it mean the sulking countries are sitting on the fence to tilt their stand from neutrality to a more ambivalent posture? Notwithstanding the petering of the support, the Forum had seen some vociferous support from expected sources. For instance, Zimbabwe, which is reeling under the pressure of Western sanctions, hit out at the perpetrators and lent full support to Moscow in its pursuits. The Southern African country was adequately rewarded by Putin by announcing more investments there, particularly by Alrosa, the Russian diamond mining company, which is re-entering that country after winding up its operations a few years ago. It is to be seen what would be the aggregate takeaways to the African nations in terms of duty-free access to the Russian market, investments, and assurances for technology transfer. That is important at a time when there is a bombardment of assurances for trade, investments, and freebies from the Western bloc.
What should be the ideal situation for Africa amidst the uncertain cocktail of war, animosity, and one-upmanship? The right pathway is the immediate end of the war and acrimony and a status quo that can bring back not alone the African growth on an even path but also a world economy growing at its usual traction to put the Covid-19 blues enveloped behind. That may be wishful thinking in the near future since ice that was formed between the West and Russia would take time to melt. A more possible scenario would be thawing down the situation and taking guard against the perpetration of the situation. That can be easily achieved by the West lifting sanctions partially that they have imposed on Russia on its export of food grains and fertilizers along with allowing Russian banks to
operate normally such as resuming SWIFT payment facilities, opening up of LCs etc. Reports indicate that sanctions have grossly handicapped Russia, particularly its hydrocarbon sector. Indeed, that is also the easiest route to Africa to force Russia to resume the Black Sea Grain Initiative to tie down their present food crisis. Yet, there is a gainsay in mentioning that the food crisis has forced the countries in the continent to look inwards shoring up their agri -capabilities to emerge as powerful links to enable the largest continent having the maximum number of cultivable acreages of land to emerge as the granary of the world. That should be the goal of Africa in the long run.
